There’s a solid case for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates once again next week, says a report published on Wednesday by Toronto-Dominion Bank.
The TD report examines cites a number of factors that could cause the BoC to cut rates at its next meeting on January 20, including the long time it could take for exports to perk up, despite the weaker loonie.
“The problem for policy makers is that the shift towards export strength, which eventually becomes a catalyst for non-energy investment, typically occurs at a slow and measured pace. But, the trauma to energy-related businesses and household incomes is occurring immediately, and appears to be more persistent than many analysts expected,” the report says.
With oil prices dropping further, there is a greater risk of “production shutdowns and a larger shock to the economy through knock-on effects,” the report notes, adding it expects Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) growth to take a shallower trajectory than the BoC has been expecting this year. The TD report forecasts real GDP growth of 1.5% for 2016, compared with the BoC’s estimate of 2%.
As a result, the TD report concludes: “In light of the more protracted nature of the rotational adjustment, a more severe shock to the energy sector, and frequent bouts of imported financial market stress from emerging markets, a case exists for a rate-cut at the January 20th meeting.”
While a 25 basis point rate cut “won’t be a game changer to the fundamental challenges within the economy … it does offer some insurance to combat persistent weakness and second-round downside risks within the economy from the oil sector,” the report says.
If the BoC doesn’t move rates, “a rate cut down the road remains entirely plausible,” the TD report says.