A global economic slowdown is underway, but advisors can help clients find investment opportunities amid the gloom, Alan Wilkinson, investment director in Fidelity Investments Canada ULC’s fund analysis and research group, said on Thursday.
“Globally, we’re slowing down,” said Wilkinson, speaking to advisors at a conference hosted by Fidelity in Toronto.
He said the U.S. economy is struggling in particular, and is facing a greater likelihood of experiencing another recession, which has major implications for the world economy.
“[The U.S.] still leads the world,” he said, “and we need to understand as best we can what’s going on down there.”
The growing U.S. debt load presents a major problem for the country’s economy, and must be addressed, Wilkinson said. He noted that the ongoing debt-ceiling debate has contributed to a sharp decline in consumer confidence, and correspondingly, a decline in economic output.
If U.S. politicians don’t reach a long-term resolution to this issue, Wilkinson expects that more rating agencies will consider a downgrade of U.S. debt.
The debt crisis in Europe, meanwhile, is likely to drag on for quite some time, he said: “It’s a very, very complex situation that I think, unfortunately, is going to take longer to resolve itself than we would want.”
These global problems are contributing to extreme levels of market volatility. Wilkinson pointed to a chart showing that in August and September, market volatility reached its highest level since the 1930s.
Despite the turbulence, however, he said profit margins are relatively high, and are likely to remain at those levels. With stock valuations having dropped in recent months, he urged advisors to take advantage of the buying opportunity that has emerged.
“This is probably fairly cheap by current standards,” Wilkinson said, pointing to price-to-earnings ratios on the S&P 500. “The investor has been less willing to pay for what has been pretty good earnings growth.”
He acknowledged that it’s a challenge to keep clients optimistic during periods of such extreme volatility, especially given the constant media coverage of the ups and downs in the markets.
“This is the way your clients get their information – day by day, in nine-second sound bites,” he said. “This tsunami of stuff envelopes them everyday, and it focuses them on the short term.”
Advisors can help clients maintain their focus on the long-term by put the market volatility into context for them.