Wall Street profits are on track to double this year, but employment levels and bonus pools are declining, a new report suggests.

The report, from New York State comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli, says that, in the first half of 2012, the industry earned US$10.5 billion, and is on pace to earn more than US$15 billion by year’s end. This would represent a sharp rebound from 2011, when the industry earned US$7.7 billion.

Last year, first half profits were US$12.6 billion, but these strong results were undermined by US$4.9 billion in losses in the second half as the European sovereign debt crisis deepened. And, the report cautions that downside risks, such as the impending ‘fiscal cliff’, and further deterioration in domestic and global economic conditions, could hurt second half profitability this year, too.

“The securities industry remains in transition and volatility in profits and employment show that we have not yet reached the new normal,” DiNapoli said. “The securities industry is still grappling with the fallout from the financial crisis, new regulations and slow economic recovery. How the industry negotiates this continued uncertainty could impact profitability and the finances of New York City and New York State.”

The report also estimates that the securities industry in New York lost 28,100 jobs during the financial crisis and has added 7,900 jobs during the recovery, for a net loss of 20,200 jobs since November 2007. It notes that employment in the securities industry in New York has fluctuated during 2012, but there has been a sharp decline in recent months.

It estimates that there were 168,700 jobs in the securities industry in August (seasonally adjusted), which was down by about 4,800 jobs from May 2012. Since the beginning of 2012, the industry has lost a net of 1,200 jobs, it says, and forecasts that employment will continue to contract during the rest of 2012.

Moreover, it expects that bonus pools will decline again this year. In February, it estimated that the cash bonus pool declined by 13.5% in 2011 to US$19.7 billion. “Revenue and compensation trends have edged downward since that report and based on those trends the total cash bonus pool for work performed in 2012 is likely to decline for the second year in a row,” it says.

Still, the average salary (including bonuses) rose by 0.5% in 2011 to US$362,950, it says, which is higher than before the financial crisis.