Analysts are cautious on Bank of Montreal, and banks generally following the release of weaker than expected third quarter results from BMO yesterday.

In a new report UBS Securities Canada Inc. notes that BMO “turned in a bit of a soft” in the third quarter, with net interest margin and loan loss pressure weighing on results, particularly in the U.S. businesses. “This raises our concerns regarding management’s ability to grow its U.S. presence through HarrisBank,” it says, noting that the stock has performed relatively well recently, notwithstanding yesterday’s pressure, and valuations now stand at a slight premium.

“In light of heightened concerns re the U.S., the absence of merger speculation, and our cautious view on the group as a whole, we are holding our $65 [price target] and neutral rating.”

UBS says that the key issue facing BMO is management’s ability to complete a sizeable and successful acquisition to grow its U.S. banking platform. It notes that BMO has a viable platform in a reasonably fragmented marketplace. “With a considerable pool of available capital, bolt on acquisitions look like a potentially attractive idea,” it says. “However, [third quarter] results highlighted the risks involved.”

It reports that the U.S. market is facing competitive pressure and a challenging interest rate/yield curve environment. “Importantly, these challenges are not expected to abate in the immediate term. This forms the basis of a key investor concern, the risks associated with investing considerable capital in a platform that is demonstrating little momentum, in a challenging environment, likely at full valuations,” it says.

“We believe BMO management has done a reasonable job in a difficult U.S. market where others have stumbled. However, in light of quarter’s challenges, and without a clear acquisition candidate — investors are unlikely to pay-up for the US opportunity versus the perceived risks.”

The other key point UBS notes is that loan loss provisioning costs looks set to rise. “While the current credit environment remains fairly benign, provisioning rates are reaching trough levels, and the favorable impact of recoveries and reversals is beginning to run off,” it says. BMO’s specific provisioning levels rose from $32 million in the second quarter to $73 million in the current quarter, it says. “We expect the prospects of rising credit provisioning to be a recurring theme across the sector and is a key tenant of our cautious operating outlook for the space.”