Institutional investors have turned bearish in their outlook for the global economy and corporate earnings, according to the latest edition of the BofA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers.

The survey finds that a net 12% of respondents predict the global economy will deteriorate in the next 12 months, the first negative forecast since February 2009, and a big turnaround from last months survey when a net 24% forecast the economy to strengthen.

A net 4% of the panel expects corporate profits to worsen in the coming year, which is also the first negative outlook in more than a year. Last month, a net 28% forecast earnings growth. Additionally, a net 1% says that profit margins will fall in the coming year, compared with a net 31% predicting improved margins in May.

With this gloomier outlook, investors’ risk appetite has dipped, the survey found, with investors moving into cash and reducing exposure to cyclical stocks. Cash now comprises 4.4% of an average portfolio, up from 4.1% in May, it said. And, allocations towards pharmaceuticals, a classic bear market sector, increased to the highest level since March 2009.

“July’s survey echoes the sentiment that investors expressed during the recession in early 2009,” said Gary Baker, head of European Equities strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

“Growth and profit expectations have double-dipped,” added Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. However, he added, “Should upcoming data fail to confirm a double-dip, risk assets will have a much better third quarter.”

For now, the survey finds that investors are more concerned about the outlook for U.S. equities than at any point since November 2006, with a net 14% of the panel saying it is the region they would most like to underweight. In June, a net 14% said the U.S. was the region they most wanted to overweight. Global asset allocators have already reduced exposure to the region, with net 7% of panel overweight U.S. equities, down from a net 20% in June.

Global emerging markets and the Eurozone have gained popularity with investors, despite weakened economic sentiment towards China and Europe, it said. A net 34% of global asset allocators are overweight GEM equities, up from 19% in May. And, a net 48% identify GEM as the region they would most like to overweight over the next 12 months, more than double the reading in May. And, the proportion of asset allocators underweight eurozone equities has fallen to a net 10%, down from a net 27% in June.

Respondents have scaled back positions in global equities while moving into bonds in the past two months, it reported. The proportion of asset allocators overweight equities has slipped to a net 11% in the latest survey from 30% in May. The proportion underweight bonds has fallen to a net 15%, down from 29% in May. “This is despite investors acknowledging that equities are increasingly undervalued and bonds increasingly overvalued,” it said.

With concerns about the strength of the recovery on the rise, inflation worries have receded, and investors are pushing back the date they expect next to see a rate hike in the U.S. or eurozone. Four out of 10 respondents are ruling out any rate hike by the Fed before July 2011, and only 4% predict an increase this year.

A total of 202 fund managers, managing a total of US$530 billion, participated in the global survey from July 1 to 8.

IE