The global speculative-grade default rate dropped to 3.3% in November, down from 3.7% the previous month, Moody’s Investors Service said Tuesday.

In a new report, the ratings agency said that a year ago the global default rate stood at 13.6%. It sees it falling further from here in the months ahead. Moody’s default rate forecasting model now predicts that the global speculative-grade default rate will fall to 2.9% by the end of this year before declining further to 1.8% by November 2011.

“We continue to expect stable, low default rates for the near future,” said Albert Metz, Moody’s director of credit policy research, in a release. “However, there are risks that defaults may increase, particularly if financing becomes scarce in the European markets.”

Over the coming year, default rates are expected to be highest in the hotel, gaming, & leisure sector in the U.S. and the media: advertising, printing and publishing sector in Europe, Moody’s said.

Measured on a dollar volume basis, the global speculative-grade bond default rate remained unchanged at 1.4% from October to November, it added.

A total of seven Moody’s-rated corporate debt issuers defaulted in November, sending the year-to-date default count to 52. In comparison, a total of 257 defaults were recorded in the comparable time period last year. All of November’s defaults were by North American issuers except for Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Ltd., which is based in Ireland.

Moody’s speculative-grade corporate distress index — which measures the percentage of rated issuers that have debt trading at distressed levels — sat at 11.5% in November, down from a level of 14.1% in October.

IE