Rating agency DBRS has confirmed its ratings on the big banks that have announced more credit crunch-driven losses over the past couple of days, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and Citigroup Inc.
DBRS confirmed its’ ratings, with a stable outlook, on Merrill, following news that it suffered a net loss of $9.8 billion for the fourth quarter, and a full year net loss of $7.8 billion. “The rating confirmation reflects Merrill’s strong global franchise that is diversified across regions and businesses. This franchise strength was reflected in a solid performance across most of its business lines in the fourth quarter. Also factored into the rating confirmation is Merrill’s robust liquidity and replenished capitalization,” it says, adding that it views Merrill’s quick action to strengthen its capital position positively.
“The company’s new management appears to be taking the right actions. Despite its robust risk management processes, Merrill’s management of its risk taking was seriously deficient in its CDO business, leading to the extraordinary losses that it is now coping with,” it says. “New management is enhancing its approach to the integration of risk assessment and the management of risk taking. While DBRS views this approach positively, the challenge lies in the implementation.”
It expects that Merrill’s strong underlying fundamentals will return the company to solid profitability in the coming quarters, even as markets remain turbulent.
DBRS also confirmed its ratings for Citigroup, which announced a net loss of $9.8 billion for the fourth quarter. “The rating confirmation reflects the strength of the company’s powerful global franchise, its diversified earnings power, as well as its strong liquidity and financial profile,” it says. “The confirmation also reflects the company’s extensive actions to bolster its capitalization in excess of its targets.”
However, it has a negative ratings trend on Citi, reflecting DBRS’s view that the bank faces challenges in the current environment that, if not properly addressed, could adversely impact its franchise strength, financial profile, and thereby its ratings. “While the company’s substantial write-downs have reduced the risk of further write-downs, the potential for additional losses remains if markets deteriorated even further. Additionally, the negative trend incorporates the turn in the U.S. consumer credit cycle that is increasing credit costs.”
Over the next few quarters, DBRS pledges to monitor Citigroup’s success in preserving its franchise strength and returning the company to strong profitability despite the challenging environment. “Additionally, controlling expenses and restoring positive operating leverage are important steps in strengthening the company’s earnings, given its ongoing exposures,” it adds. “With new management providing greater impetus and urgency, the company can enhance its franchise by delivering early results.”
DBRS expects that Citigroup will continue to make progress in shedding assets and improving how efficiently it uses its balance sheet to further enhance its capital position.