Canadians with the bulk of their investment portfolio in this country’s red-hot equity market should reduce risk and look overseas for future gains, five leading portfolio managers of Franklin Templeton Investments Corp. said today.
“Canada’s strong markets cannot go on forever,” Don Reed, President and CEO of Franklin Templeton Investments, told more than 2,000 financial advisers and investors at the company’s annual Outlook and Opportunities Forum.
“‘This time is different’ are four costly words because history often repeats itself. The Canadian markets’ strong returns cannot go on forever,” Reed says.
The S&P/TSX is up more than 80% in value since 2002 but three sectors have driven a lot of the gains: energy, materials and financial services. Today, they account for 75% of the value of the Toronto Stock Exchange, Reed says.
“For many Canadians, it’s time to diversify,” says Reed. “Canadian markets have had a strong five-year run. But no trend goes on forever. Investors need to lock in profits at home, diversify globally and secure future growth.”
The Templeton International Stock Fund, a $2.6-billion fund managed by Reed, is finding value in the emerging markets of Asia, especially China, Taiwan, and South Korea. The fund is overweight in consumer discretionary stocks and telecommunication sectors.
“Like our founder Sir John Templeton, we are finding value in some contrarian and out of favour sectors. History demonstrates this is the best place to look for investment opportunities,” says Reed.
Lisa Myers, lead manager of the $5-billion Templeton Growth Fund, says valuations outside Canada are compelling too. A growing list of well-known U.S. blue chip stocks are trading at attractive multiples, she said. Microsoft Corp., General Electric Co. and Time Warner Inc. are among the firms that have increased earnings, reduced debt, increased their foreign revenue stream and yet continue to trade at a discount, Myers says.
“There are many bargains out there that in the long run will prove to be treasures,” Myers says. “Now is an opportune time for Canadian investors to use their strong currency to buy globally at a significant discount.”
There’s a strong case to be made for European markets, said Jeffrey Everett, chief investment officer of the Templeton Global Equity Group and lead manager of the $64.9-million Templeton European Corporate Class. Symbols of old Europe — like Siemens AG —have become nimble, international players, while new companies like Vestas Wind Systems AS are the new global innovators, he says.
“A number of factors are coalescing to create a favourable growth environment. Interest rates and inflation are low, corporate taxes are declining and earnings momentum is strong,” Everett says.