In the first week of the final phase of the Jan. 23 federal election campaign, the Liberals held off unleashing negatives ads about their opponents to boast about their fiscal and economic record while in office.
The tactic may be risky because with the exception of tax cuts, economic issues have been getting short shrift in this election campaign. This is surprising, considering Ottawa has been recording fiscal surpluses for eight straight years, unemployment is at record lows and the Liberals have had the luxury of being able to accelerate spending while cutting taxes at the same time.
This week the Toronto Stock Exchange hit record highs with no end to economic growth in sight. Yet the Liberals have been unable to get their economic record in the media beyond their own ads.
You could be forgiven for thinking Canada was in the grip of a recession given the mood on the campaign trail.
Some pollsters, such as Nik Nanos of Ottawa-based SES Research, think because household incomes have not been keeping pace with inflation, ordinary voters don’t feel part of the prosperity.
But even the Conservatives’ promise early in the campaign to cut the GST didn’t have any impact in the polls.
The Liberals are hampered in talking about their recent economic record because of the current controversy and criminal investigation surrounding income trusts.
Whatever the reason, economic issues haven’t had much traction in the polls.
The situation may change, however, if the Liberals troubles over income trusts die down.
Stories have started to appear in the media questioning the need for an RCMP investigation in the first place. Financial Post columnist Terence Corcoran seemed to hint this week that perhaps the RCMP was grandstanding when it announced a criminal investigation near the halfway point in the campaign.
In its latest poll in the Globe and Mail, the Strategic Counsel of Toronto reported that 45% of respondents in Ontario on Jan. 3 and Jan. 4 thought there may not have been a leak of the government’s income trust policy versus 38% who did.
If this is a sign that the income trust controversy is waning, the Liberals may be able get busy on a late-stage recovery as they were able to do in 2004.
At the end of the week, the polls showed the Conservatives with a lead of anywhere from two to six percentage points over the Liberals — basically a reverse of what the polls were showing just before Christmas.
The Conservatives peaked in the polls at roughly the same stage of the 2004 campaign before the Liberals mounted a last minute recovery. Will lighting strike twice?
There has been one indirect development in this campaign that could have far-reaching economic effects, however.
Debate about healthcare has been centred on the report by Senator Michael Kirby that recommended private sector involvement in the public medicare system.
In the 2004 campaign the report by former Saskatchewan Premier Roy Romanow was the touchstone in healthcare debate. Romanow firmly believed there was no place for private interests in a public healthcare system.
This change is likely a sign that politicians of all parties no longer regard private sector participation in the health care system as a toxic topic.
Campaign watch: Economic issues getting short shrift
- By: Gord McIntosh
- January 6, 2006 January 6, 2006
- 14:30