The overall bias of its bank ratings is increasingly positive with 13.5% of the total carrying a “Positive Outlook” in the fourth quarter of 2006, compared to 11.9% in the third quarter, says Fitch Ratings in a report issued today.
This proportion of positive outlooks is the highest since the inception of Fitch’s Global Bank Rating Trends publication series in 2005. More than 80% of Fitch’s bank ratings have Stable Outlook while only 3.6% are on Negative Outlook.
By far the most significant driver of bank rating action in the fourth quarter was the positive reassessment of potential support for banks in the six Gulf Cooperation Council states, which saw 27 banks in the region being upgraded, Fitch said. Elsewhere in the emerging markets, new or increasing levels of foreign ownership helped to push up ratings from Taiwan to El Salvador, taking in the likes of Slovenia, Lithuania and Romania on the way.
“Clearly the internationalization of banking markets remains a potent force for improving credit risk as Western banks continue to seek faster growth outside their largely mature domestic markets,” said Gerry Rawcliffe, managing director in Fitch’s Financial Institutions Group in London.
Overall the developed markets continued to show a high degree of rating stability, although the positive bias has become progressively stronger over the last three quarters, particularly in developed Americas and Asia, driven by the Unites States and Japan, respectively. Although the proportion of Positive Outlooks in developed Europe fell back slightly in Q4, it is still at a historically high level, Fitch said.
The emerging markets continue to show greater rating volatility, with the overall level of Stable Outlooks hovering around 75%, having trended upwards since Q4 2005, the rating agency noted. The increased potential for volatility remains largely on the upside with Positive Outlooks at 16% and Positive Watches at 2.2%.
Bank ratings overwhelming positive in Q4, says Fitch
Internationalization of banking markets remains a potent force for improving credit risk
- By: James Langton
- January 18, 2007 January 18, 2007
- 12:30