This story was updated to include comments from an additional advisor.
There’s no shortage of, let’s say, “colourful” stories about re-elected President Donald Trump, and David McGruer’s family claims some Trump lore of their own.
McGruer, a financial advisor with Investia Financial Services Inc. in Ottawa, said his family was preparing to move when they found a Trump-branded jewelry box among their effects; it contained a bag of shiny cat’s eyes.
“We said, ‘Oh, we found Trump’s marbles,” McGruer said in an interview. “He’s lost them, we found them.’”
McGruer believes both U.S. presidential candidates left a lot to be desired.
“Neither of the party leaders had any sense of what is the proper foundation for political positions, rooted in the origins of the country — the [U.S.] Constitution and the Declaration of Independence,” McGruer said.
Economically, Trump’s presidential win on Tuesday is set to have significant implications for tariffs, taxes and regulations that would have spillover effects for Canada. The financial advisors we spoke with on Wednesday were considering the election’s impacts and were also clear that clients shouldn’t be making rash decisions.
“My fundamental answer to the question of what about the U.S. election is, ‘So what?’” McGruer said. “It doesn’t matter much in the short term, if at all. Predicting what markets will do over the four years of the coming term, based on my opinion or anyone else’s, is just pure speculation.”
Whether a client is optimistic or worried about the election’s impact, McGruer said his response to clients, ultimately, is “it’s already factored in to your plan … It’s built in to the very foundation of the assumptions we’ve made.”
Jonathan Durocher, president of National Bank Financial Wealth Management, also referenced financial planning in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday: “Good wealth advisors will remind their investors that, while important, election results should not change much to your financial plan.”
The S&P 500 finished the day up nearly 3%. In a LinkedIn post, Julie Petrera, senior strategist for client needs with Edward Jones, noted that post–U.S. elections, markets tend to rise. From 1977 to 2023, TSX and S&P 500 returns were typically best in years one and three post-election, regardless of which party won, she said, citing data from Morningstar Direct and Edward Jones. If that data hold, 2025 and 2027 would be the years with those good returns.
While the Trump presidency could be more or less favourable to certain sectors, what’s important is a sector’s fundamentals, McGruer said.
“A particular sector is filled with highly intelligent business executives and leaders who spend their entire working life thinking about how to optimize the value of the business,” McGruer said. “I give them infinitely more credibility, and they will be proven right over time, versus a political leader who comes and goes and has some limited impact.”
Further, making tactical moves in a portfolio — jumping from sector to sector, say — in response to the election is “the antithesis” of providing value to clients, McGruer said. His value is “most definitely not centred on short-term or even long-term market or economic analysis and commentary.”
Darren Coleman, senior portfolio manager, private client group, with Coleman Wealth, Raymond James Ltd. in Oakville, Ont., said he and his team analyzed each candidate’s platform ahead of the election and what strategies investors could use to address them.
“But I think for most investors, the answer is don’t do anything,” Coleman said. “[It’s time to] get back to the fundamentals” regarding asset allocation and finding “wonderful businesses,” he said, and it’s best to “stay invested.”
Coleman said some of his cross-border clients have already said they’re thinking of leaving their current country — whether that’s U.S.-based clients who want to move north, or Canada-based ones who like the election’s outcome and are open to moving south.
“It’s not just like you’re moving across the street,” he said, and he’ll be encouraging clients to take a breather and think about the complexities.
Coleman’s team produces informational videos for clients regularly, and will create one in a month or two that will include thoughts on the election’s potential impact. He’ll be watching trade and immigration policies, he said, which could affect his cross-border clients.
“To what degree [might it] become easier or harder for people to cross the border?” he said. “We deal with highly skilled foreign workers and business owners … so [what’s the impact there?]”
Further, “if Trump is going to be aggressive on tax policy like he was last time, that could also be a key differentiator between the attractiveness of businesses and capital coming to Canada,” Coleman said.
He added, “We’re already seeing a pretty wide gap between Canadian tax policy and U.S. tax policy, and Trump may accelerate that like he did last time.”
Kathy McMillan, wealth advisor, associate portfolio manager and investment advisor, with McMillan Wealth Solutions, Richardson Wealth in Calgary, Alta., has also been proactive with clients: “The key is to have been talking to clients to bring their fears down, and saying, ‘You know, when we look at history, the year going into an election and the year coming out, we’ve seen good performance because everyone’s hopeful for change. And then we realize they [the politicians] are just like everybody else.”
Despite all the noise, she added, there’s no immediate worry. “[There’s] the divisiveness and the fake news, [and] that’s awful,” she said. “But it’s distinct from the markets. And as long as people are consuming […], that’s going to be a direct correlation to the productivity of the corporations in your portfolio. So, I don’t have any worries.”
She’ll watch developments tied to the tariff proposals, suggesting, “[That] could mess with the world markets.”
However, McMillan mentioned that the market has enjoyed “high double-digit returns” in the past few years, and one strategy has been to “take from equities and shelter in bonds. I don’t like bonds, but when you have interest rates dropping, there’s no better time [to invest]. We’re ensuring that our allocation in our portfolios is within the parameters that we want them to be.”
Even if there’s a pullback in more aggressive equities and those with high valuations, the message for clients is there’s time to address that. “We bought time with ensuring you have a bigger buffer than you normally do,” she explained.
On the broad social front, said McMillan, “This is a step back for all women and I find that extremely worrisome. Maybe this will bring even more response and reaction and more proactive[ness] to kind of carry our cause, [but] it feels like we’re stepping back in time.”
When it comes to supporting women’s rights, careers, and futures, she said, “Some of the top people [in our industry in Canada] are women. We’re more relationship-oriented, [as] this is not a career [based on] number crunching and getting up at 6am and watching the markets. So, how can we get more women?”