A budgetary FAQ on Parliament’s dissolution

Almost all business ceased when Parliament was prorogued two months ago.

We asked three parliamentary and policy process experts what happens to the fall economic statement (FES), the budget and government appropriations.

Will the 2024 FES be implemented in its entirety?

Probably not.

“The [2024] FES is off the table, quite frankly. It’s going to be all about the budget,” said Lydia Miljan, head of the political science department at the University of Windsor.

Since the 2024 FES was released, the only sitting day came Dec. 17. The government did not use it to  turn its spending proposals into law.

Typically, the government introduces a bill to implement the FES. For example, the 2023 FES implementation act became law last June.

However, the government isn’t legally obligated to implement it, said Geneviève Tellier, a professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa. “I don’t expect any follow up from the [fall] economic statement unless Mark Carney tells us otherwise,” she said.

The government isn’t even required to release mid-year fiscal updates. It’s only done so since 1995 under former prime minister Jean Chrétien.

Budget day draws public and media attention, Tellier said. “The government realized that instead of one day, they could have two days [in the spotlight].”

If the new government wants to implement anything from the 2024 FES, it could be “rolled into” future bills after the election, Jonathan Malloy, a political science professor and former chair of the political science department at Carleton University, said in an email.

When will the new government table Budget 2025?

Maybe as early as June, but nobody knows for sure.

Governments are usually eager to present their budget and act on their campaign promises as early as possible, Tellier said.

For example, former prime minister Stephen Harper assumed office in February 2006 and presented the budget that May.

It would depend on how quickly the winning party could put a budget together, Miljan said. While Liberals may be able to table one quickly as they already have the government machinery behind them, a Conservative government might take longer.

Meanwhile, the Department of Finance is likely working on several templates for Budget 2025 based on the different party platforms so it can act quickly when the next prime minister and finance minister is sworn in, Tellier said.

Regardless of who wins, the new government will need to move fast, Miljan said.

The current appropriations act only funds the government until March 31 and a dissolved Parliament can’t vote on new government funding. “If they want to meet payrolls and they want to get things going, they’ve got to act pretty quickly,” Miljan said.

Will the government shut down when it runs out of money next week?

No.

Unlike the U.S., which shuts down the government when Congress fails to enact appropriation bills, we have a Governor General who can issue a special warrant, Tellier said.

Under the Financial Administration Act, a special warrant lets the government continue funding its work during a dissolution, such as paying civil servant salaries.

When Parliament sits again in June, voting on appropriations will likely be a high priority, Miljan said.

Will there be a 2025 FES?

It depends on when the budget is released.

If Budget 2025 is tabled in late summer, it won’t make sense to have an FES following so closely, Miljan said.

“The FES is a somewhat artificial construct that governments have found convenient and that we’ve simply gotten used to, so if we had a summer budget, the fall FES might get cancelled entirely,” Malloy said.

If it does get cancelled, it’ll be the first time that has happened since that first mid-year fiscal update in 1995.