U.S. regulators finally released the long-awaited results of their stress tests on the 19 largest banks on Thursday, calling on the banks to raise US$75 billion in fresh capital.
The stress test was designed to assess the possible losses faced by the biggest banks, their ability to absorb those losses and the need for them to raise further capital as a result. It found that, under an adverse scenario for the economy, the banks’ cumulative losses could rise to US$600 billion in 2009 and 2010. Most of the estimated losses would come on loans, approximately US$455 billion worth, with the rest on trading positions and investment portfolios.
At the end of 2008, the banks had collective Tier 1 capital of about US$835 billion, so many of them would be able to absorb their share of the estimated losses, the regulators said. However, they also project that the banks need to add US$185 billion to their capital cushions by the end of 2010. Nine of the 19 firms don’t need to add any capital, and those that do, are only expected to experience a shortfall in Tier 1 common capital, not overall Tier 1 capital. Moreover, some of the banks in the test have either already arranged to sell assets or restructure their existing capital such that their estimated capital needs fall to US$75 billion, the regulators found.
By far the biggest capital need is at Bank of America, which the regulators say needs to raise almost US$34 billion. Wells Fargo is a distant second at US$13.7 billion, followed by GMAC at US$11.5 billion.
The banks that the regulators say must raise capital will now have 30 days to come up with a plan to do so, and six months to implement that plan. These plans may include restructuring capital, cutting dividends and selling assets.
Already, some of the firms are announcing offerings designed to make up their capital needs. Wells Fargo announced a proposed offering of US$6 billion of common stock. Citigroup said that it would expand its previously disclosed public exchange offers by US$5.5 billion to meet the regulators’ demands. And, Morgan Stanley also announced a public offering of US$2 billion of its common stock, and that it intends to offer approximately US$3 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes in a registered public offering.
Bank of America’s chief financial officer, Joe Price, said that the company could increase its’ Tier 1 common ratio in a number of ways. He said the company intends to sell common stock and/or convert existing privately held preferred stock into common shares. Bank of America has already announced it will sell First Republic Bank and is considering the sale of several other business units including Columbia Management. It may also consider several joint ventures, it said.
“Our intention will be to reach the government’s target on our own without exchanging any of the current U.S. investment in Bank of America into mandatory convertible preferred stock,” Price said. “That would allow us to minimize the use of government money and put us into a position to repay the government’s investment sooner.”
“The results released today should provide considerable comfort to investors and the public,” said chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke. “The examiners found that nearly all the banks that were evaluated have enough Tier 1 capital to absorb the higher losses envisioned under the hypothetical adverse scenario.”
Bernanke added that while several firms need to enhance their capital structure, “Many of the institutions have already taken actions to bolster their capital buffers and are well-positioned to raise capital from private sources over the next six months.” He added that the Treasury Department, “stands ready to provide whatever additional capital may be necessary to ensure that our banking system is able to navigate a challenging economic downturn.”
“The capital assessment results we are reporting today are just one important element of the government’s broader and ongoing efforts to strengthen the financial system and the economy. The current crisis has been one of the most challenging financial and economic episodes in modern history, but we face no problems that cannot be overcome with insight, patience, and persistence,” he concluded.
IE