The proposed Alberta Pension Plan would be entitled to much less than the 53% of total Canada Pension Plan (CPP) assets, estimated by LifeWorks in a 2023 report, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ (OSFI) chief actuary said in a position paper released Friday.
That figure has been widely touted by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
The chief actuary, Assia Billig, created an independent advisory panel of actuaries to review publicly available information to determine what Alberta would be entitled to if it left the CPP, the report said.
The expert panel came to a similar conclusion as Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary, who calculated that Alberta would get between 20% and 25% of the CPP. Tombe published his analysis in the Canadian Public Policy journal in March.
This would bring the value down to $120 billion to $150 billion. LifeWorks estimated $334 billion.
The company’s “literal” interpretation of the formula would’ve resulted in a hypothetical allocation to all provinces exceeding total net CPP investment income, while its “alternate and reasonable” interpretation could result in negative allocations for some provinces and considers factors other than contributions, according to OSFI.
“Neither of the positions presented in the LifeWorks report respect the textual indications of the legislation,” OSFI’s report said.
Alberta and B.C. previously considered a joint pension plan in 2009 that would supplement the CPP.