The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ newly released plan of action for the next three years includes ensuring its own ability to respond to crisis.

The OSFI’s report notes that the financial sector is generally sound, but risks and challenges abound.

Looking at the economy, OSFI notes that the consensus forecast compiled in February projected real GDP growth for Canada of 2.8% in 2005 and 3% in 2006.

“The rise in the Canadian dollar over 2004 is expected to have a dampening effect on net exports and real GDP growth. Neither inflation, nor weakness in the household sector, is expected to be significant enough to materially weaken financial institutions,” the OSFI report adds.

“Bank balance sheets are sound. The challenge facing a number of banks is how to continue to grow and earn targeted rates of return in a highly competitive market,” the OSFI report continues. “Some banks, in seeking higher growth rates or rates of return, may take on risks that they will be challenged to either manage and/or provide for adequately.”

It adds that U.S. life insurers(including the U.S. operations of Canadian companies) are expected to continue to recover from a combination of weak equity markets and low interest rates.

“Concerns remain, however, over the profitability of annuity and life products, due to the combined effect of a flat equity market and spread compression. Of further concern is that risk management capabilities may not be commensurate with the risks being assumed,” it cautions. “In addition, rapid increases in health costs in the U.S. will have implications for Canadian companies that are active in the health insurance business in the U.S.”

As for the property and casualty insurance companies, OSFI notes that the performance of the P&C and reinsurance sectors has improved significantly over the past year.

“However, the P&C sector is inherently volatile, and the length of the current recovery is uncertain. Recent profits have attracted new capital, which leads to more intense competition. The desire to retain capital then leads to the writing of unprofitable business,” it notes. “Of particular concern is the consequent material weakening in terms and conditions, as this has typically been the leading indicator of a return to uneconomic underwriting in casualty/liability lines. Pricing behaviour over the next year will be crucial to determining whether the industry retains underwriting profitability.”

And, for the economy overall it cautions, ”Uncertainties with respect to the Canadian outlook continue to relate to the ongoing adjustments to changes in the global economy, including changes in the exchange rate.”

Some of the more significant risks OSFI include: regulatory failure; financial crime and terrorism; added complexity due to the increase in foreign activities of some of the Canadian financial institutions; the impact of impending changes in accounting and capital regimes; increased demands for accountability from government.

And, it warns, “Based on recent history, the potential for unexpected significant adverse events is high and requires OSFI to regularly update its assessment of the adequacy of financial institutions’ business continuity/ resumption capabilities. As well, OSFI must review its own ability to respond effectively during a crisis.”

With this in mind, OSFI’s priorities for the coming years include: making accurate risk assessments of financial institutions; a balanced, relevant regulatory framework that meets or exceeds international minimums; an effective, balanced and responsive approvals process; accurate risk assessments, interventions and approvals for pension plans; improving supervisory and regulatory practices in foreign countries; contributing to financially sound federal government pensions by providing expert actuarial valuation and advice; high-quality internal governance and related reporting; and securing resources and infrastructure necessary to support its supervisory and regulatory activities.

It says that these objectives will help it continue to contribute to public confidence in the safety and soundness of financial institutions and private pension plans.