Life expectancy for the average Canadian is expected to reach 90 years of age towards the end of the century, according to a new report from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ (OSFI) chief actuary.
OSFI Tuesday released Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada, which examines mortality trends in Canada and projects how these trends may change in the years ahead, impacting the growth of the elderly population. These forecasts are used for actuarial valuations of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and the Old Age Security (OAS) program.
The report finds that, over the last decade, life expectancy at age 65 has increased by two years, which represents a rate of growth that’s about twice previous decades. “It is further projected to increase from 21 to 24 years for men and from 23 to 26 years for women by 2075,” it says. “This means that Canadians are expected to live beyond age 90 on average in the future.”
Increases in life expectancy in Canada over the last 30 years “have been largely due to the reduction of mortality rates after age 65”, the report says; noting that this is due to a decrease of deaths caused by heart diseases. Cancer has surpassed heart disease to become the most important cause of death among those aged 65 and older, it reports.
Looking ahead, the report says that life expectancies at birth for Canadians are projected to increase from 86 years to 90 for men, and from 89 to 93 for women by 2075. However, the report says that it will be hard to achieve a life expectancy at birth of 100.
“Although it is expected that living to 90 will be easier than in the past, it will remain a challenge to reach a life expectancy of 100,” it says. “A life expectancy of 100 would be possible if no one died until one’s late nineties, and if the same mortality rates at advanced ages as those experienced in 2009 applied.”
Currently, five out of 10 Canadians aged 20 are expected to reach age 90, but that only one out of 10 is expected to live to 100 years of age, it says.
However, it notes that, “If mortality rates continue to decrease at the same rate as experienced over the last 15 years, a life expectancy at birth of 100 could be reached in 2094 for men and in 2121 for women”; noting that male life expectancy could start to exceed female life expectancy from 2026.
The paper also says that, since 1925, the chance of a newborn reaching age 65 has increased from 57% to 87% for males, and from 60% to 91% for females. By 2075, it is projected that 93% of male newborns and 95% of female newborns will reach age 65, it says.