Two high-profile U.S.-based money gurus agreed on a surprising investment tip at a debate at an exchange-traded fund (ETF) conference in Florida Wednesday: Buy Greece.
Dennis Gartman, founder and author of the Gartman Letter and Mark Yusco, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of investment management firm Morgan Creek Capital Management LLC, both said Greece, wallowing in debt and bad press, has nowhere to go but up in 2015.
“Greece will be the number one surprise and will be one of the best-performing trades in 2015,” Yusco told ETF.com‘s Inside ETFs conference.
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Both investors agreed that the trades that are the most uncomfortable to make are often the best. Gartman said one of his best indicators is the “laughter factor.” If he offers a tip at a cocktail party and gets laughed out of the room, that’s a buying indicator, he says. “
“If they put your arm around you and agree, you won’t make money,” he says. “You’ve got to do the ‘hard’ trade.”
Yusco agreed, saying his buying indicator is when he feels queasy and uncomfortable in the pit of his stomach. He saif the best way to buy Greece is through country-based index ETFs such as Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF, which give broad exposure across the entire market.
In what was termed a debate, the two investment professionals actually disagreed on little. They were both bullish on the prospects for India. Indian exposure can be obtained by through ETFs such as Wisdom Tree India Earnings ETF, and in Canadians also have access through mutual funds offered by Excel Funds Management Inc. of Mississauga.
“India is going to crush U.S. equities in 2015,” Yusco says. “You should be overweight in India.”
He said India lacks the “three D’s” that will drag down the U.S. — debt, unfavorable demographics and deflation. India has a massive young, highly educated, upwardly mobile population that has been shaped by an entrepreneurial culture and rule of law. Meanwhile, the U.S. population is aging, and retiring baby boomers don’t buy as many new cars or big houses.
“About 25% of the people under 25 in the world live in India,” Yusco said. “In 20 years, these 20-year-olds will be in their 40’s, and they will be the smartest, most productive people on the planet. In America, at 65, we are not as innovative, and are not in our prime GDP-creating stage of life.”
Gartman says that in India it will be profitable to look beyond the big-cap companies like banks and technology, to those firms that will benefit from growing domestic demand, and likes funds and ETFs that offer broad exposure. Unlike some emerging markets, India is liquid, he says.
“I’ve heard emerging markets defined as markets from which you cannot emerge in an emergency,” he says. “You might not be able to emerge from Croatia in a hurry, but in India there is liquidity. It is a great growth story.”
Both “debaters” were optimistic about gold, as currencies around the world aside from the U.S. dollar, have been depreciating. And they said it’s even better to get gold exposure in currencies that are depreciating the most, such as the Japanese yen or the euro. Owning gold in an appreciating currency such as the U.S. dollar counteracts some of any gold gains, they said.
“Gold has been hitting all-time highs denominated in the yen, and the yen will be lower the rest of your life,” said Yusco, referring to economic policies in Japan such as massive quantitative easing. “Japan has no way out but to devalue its currency, and owning gold in yen is the best way to go.”
Gartman said gold is the “ultimate currency,” and although it has been trading as a commodity for the past few years, as world currencies depreciate it has been trading as a currency. The euro, the yen and the Russian ruble have all been depreciating in the past year, and the Russian ruble has dropped by more than 40%.
“Gold bought with Russian rubles would have been the best trade of all,” Gartman said.
Both men said there could be opportunity in buying Russian stocks.
“I’m a big fan of Russian assets right now,” Yusco said. “There’s no asset so bad that you can’t gain by buying at a rock bottom price. And there’s no asset good enough that you should buy when its overpriced.”
He views the U.S. market as expensive after several years of gains. The S&P 500 index has a current price/earnings ratio of around 20.
“The way to make money is buy markets when they are cheap — when they’re priced at under 10 times earnings,” he said. “Bull markets start at P/Es below 10, and end when they’re above 20. Now is the time to be hedged in the U.S. market. “
Again, both men agreed when it came to the price of oil. They expect oil prices to stay low, and said they could fall even further. Gartman said peak oil is now a “comical notion” as there is a lot of supply.