In the midst of a bear market and a looming recession, coupled with the devastating events of September 11, investors and advisors alike are in need of direction and reassurance.
The Fund Library Inc. is prepared to offer both, and is set to hit the road with a research and analysis discussion entitled “A time for rational thinking.”
The seminar, commissioned by Talvest Fund Management Inc., takes a historical look at world market cycles as well as Canadian investor patterns. Steve Kangas, managing editor and fund analyst at fundlibrary.com, will be accompanied at each discussion by one or two money managers from Talvest during the 15-city tour across Canada.
Starting the first week of October and continuing to mid-November the seminars are meant to remind advisors and investors (some of whom have never seen a bear market) that what goes up must come down, and vice versa.
“The idea is to remind advisors of history and then provide them with some Q & A time with a money manager,” says Kangas.
Much of the material presented during the seminars can be found on the Internet, and Kangas points out that any advisor could find the information and relay it to clients, “but what financial planner has the time to do that?” Kangas asks.
“Planners are living with the day-to-day emotions of their clients and are just too busy to gather and distribute this information.”
Kangas and Talvest are trying to drive home the need for rational thinking, and a retreat from emotional investing. The first lesson anyone learns about the stock market is “buy low and sell high” but according to Kangas that’s not what people do.
Investors get caught up in what he calls a roller coaster of emotions — they buy when the market has peaked because they feel exhilarated, and sell when it bottoms out because they panic. The opposite should be true he says, but “investors emotions can be their worst enemy.”
According to the material compiled by fundlibrary.com, the average bear market lasts 1.3 years, and we have already been dancing with the bear for the last year and a half.
Although neither Kangas nor Talvest want to predict when the rebound will occur, both agree it’s inevitable. The point is that investors should be getting back into the market if they want to be part of the rebound. Kangas warns it is nearly impossible to predict when the market has fully bottomed out, but that shouldn’t dissuade investors from getting back in.
Guy Desrochers, chief investment officer with Talvest agrees, “we’re in a pretty healthy economy and we should be looking forward but emotions do get in the way of investing,” he says.
The seminars provide four pieces of advice on how investors can control their emotions:
- Understand market cycles. No one can predict when the market will go up, or come down, but understand that it will do both. Don’t be surprised, don’t be overconfident, and don’t panic.
- Use reason not emotion when investing. Don’t get swept up in the euphoria of rising markets by buying stocks on a whim. And don’t get swept up in the panic of a downturn by selling on a sudden drop.
- When the markets go down, consider making new investments — not bailing out. But do your homework — research the companies and industries you’re considering investing in.
- Get and use professional advice. Financial advisors make a living by studying markets and giving good counsel. Draw up a plan together, and stick with it.