A highly volatile stock market has nervous Canadian investors pulling back on their investments and sitting on record amounts of cash, finds a new CIBC World Markets consumer watch report.

The report finds that Canadians are holding onto a record $45 billion in extra cash they normally would invest in the markets — a decision that could cost them billions of dollars in lost investment opportunities.

“Despite the recent recovery in the stock market, Canadians are still sitting on cash positions which in real terms are 15% higher than the already elevated level seen in 2001,” says Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets and author of the report. “The October 1987 stock market correction lasted two months, but investors sat on their newly created mountain of cash for a lengthy 16 months, during which time the stock market gained more than 20%. Ditto for the 2001 flight to safety.”

By his calculations, sitting too long on the sidelines after the 2001 market correction, cost Canadian investors more than $30 billion — a pattern he sees emerging again in 2008. “Fast forward to today’s situation and it appears that history is repeating itself. Investors are sacrificing billions of dollars in potential investment gains,” Tal adds.

One of the main differences he sees this time round is a big increase in the risk aversion of younger investors. “As risk aversion rises with age, it is hardly a surprise that older Canadians are the first to make a beeline to the safety of cash. However, what is surprising is the near 40% contribution of Canadians age 25-49 to the current liquidity reserve. This amount is twice as large as what we saw in 2001.”

He attributes part of the increase to the fact that back in 2001 some of the money these investors took from the stock market went into real estate — an option less attractive or affordable today.

The report notes that the implied volatility index of the TSX, a measure of Canadian equity investors’ nervousness, has risen by an incredible 80% over the past year, and is now at a level not seen in more than five years.

The cash holdings of Canadian households are now rising at a year-over-year rate of 15% — the fastest pace in more than six years. When measured in both nominal and real terms, the current value of personal liquid assets is at a record high. Tal notes that the extra $45 billion in cash that Canadian investors are sitting on represents 10% of the total personal liquid assets in Canada.

Sales of money market funds hit a record of $10.7 billion during the first three months of 2008. In fact, in March, all of the $2.6 billion in net mutual fund sales flowed into money market investment. With balances surging at more than 30% on a-year-over year basis, the share of money market funds as a percentage of total mutual funds has shot up from 7% in September 2007 to 10% today.

“Money market mutual funds represent only one of many cash instruments in the Canadian household liquidity spectrum, with a value of close to half a trillion dollars,” adds Tal. “In this context, the anxiety about the stock markets also worked to reacquaint Canadians with their chequing and savings accounts, with balances currently rising at over seven% on a year-over-year basis. Cash positions in brokerage accounts are also rising by an estimated annual rate of 15%.

The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/cwcda-080507.pdf.