Canada’s record population growth may be positive for rejuvenating an aging population and building its workforce, but it also creates a big problem in terms of meeting the country’s emission reduction targets, says National Bank Financial Inc.
In a new report, the bank’s economists noted that the population boom puts pressure on the housing market while having major implications for the government’s environmental commitments.
“Ottawa’s decision to open the immigration floodgates is creating a growing asset-liability mismatch when it comes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,” the report said.
The federal government is targeting a reduction in annual GHG emissions to approximately 440 million tons by 2030, it noted.
“After slowly converging on this goal for most of the past decade, we estimate that a brutal reversal is now taking place,” NBF said.
While the official numbers won’t be reported until next year, the report estimated that emissions likely hit a record high in 2022, amid the unprecedented addition of over 1 million people to Canada’s population.
And, with another 850,000 people due to be added this year, the picture gets even worse — NBF estimated that annual emissions will hit 771 million metric tons this year, well above the 2030 target.
“If the federal government decides to maintain both its 2030 GHG emissions target and one of the world’s most aggressive immigration policies, expect more drastic (onerous) measures to be introduced to alter household consumption patterns,” it said.