The World Bank’s pandemic bonds have not yet been triggered, but DBRS Inc. says that the payout conditions may still be met before the bonds mature in July.
In a new report, the rating agency examines the latest contagion trends and the prospect of the bonds paying out to the Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility, which provides financial support to developing countries.
The report noted that the last condition that must be met in order to trigger the bonds is “exponential growth” of Covid-19 cases in the International Development Association (IDA) and International Bank Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) countries.
DBRS noted that, based on contagion trends in IDA/IBRD countries, the calculated growth rate could turn positive in late May.
“The trajectory of the growth rate for the number of cases in IDA/IBRD countries will depend on a number of factors, including broad accessibility to testing in the developing world and the effectiveness of social distancing measures,” said Marcos Alvarez, senior vice president and head of insurance at DBRS.
“Based on the recent evolution in the number of cases in IDA/IBRD countries and our calculation of the growth rate using the prescribed formula, DBRS Morningstar estimates that it is still possible that the pandemic bonds will be triggered before their maturity,” Alvarez said.