The U.S. economy grew at a solid 3.1% rate in the first three months of the year, but much of that gain was based on temporary factors that will likely fade, leaving growth much slower in the current quarter.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that the first quarter advance in the gross domestic product, the economy’s total output of goods and services, rose sharply from a 2.2% increase in the fourth quarter as the economy overcame a partial government shutdown to weakness in overseas economies.

The new GDP estimate was down slightly from an initial 3.2% estimate. For the current April-June quarter economists believe GDP growth will slow to less than 2% and for the year they see GDP rising a modest 2.3%.