Despite a slowing economy, Fitch Ratings expects North America sovereign ratings to remain Stable in 2019, the credit rating agency says in a report published Wednesday.
Heading into 2019, both Canada and the United States are rated ‘AAA’ with stable outlooks, the report notes. Canada’s rating is supported by its large and diverse economy and track record of fiscal adjustment,” the report says, and the general government debt burden is “on a downward path.”
Economic growth in North America is expected to slow in 2019, but to remain above long-term potential growth rates, supporting public finances and sovereign creditworthiness, the report says.
“We expect the U.S. to grow by 2.6% in 2019, with demand still benefiting from tax cuts and rising wages, while the Canadian economy will grow by around 2% as investment and net trade strengthen while private consumption moderates,” it says, and “reduced uncertainty over North America trade will benefit Canada in particular, although the revised U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement may face delays in ratification in the new U.S. Congress.”
In terms of monetary policy, Fitch expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in 2019, taking the policy rate close to neutral at 3.25%.
“The Bank of Canada will follow suit, but it will tread carefully, mindful of borrowers’ sensitivity to higher rates amid a slowdown in household credit growth and cooling housing market that followed earlier macroprudential tightening,” the report says.
As for fiscal policy, despite increases in spending and tax breaks that were set out in the Canadian government’s recent fall economic statement, the report says “federal government fiscal policy is consistent with a falling government debt burden under our growth and interest rate assumptions. General government deficits and debt are also on a downward path although subject to risks from provincial finances.”
The key triggers for a possible credit rating downgrade in Canada include “a deterioration in public finances and potential spillovers from a reversal in recent strong house price appreciation for banks, household balance sheets, growth and public finances,” the report says.