Kevin Dougherty

If an election was held now in Quebec, François Legault would easily be elected premier. The latest polls by CROP and Léger Marketing Inc., the two leading polling firms in the province, both give Legault’s phantom party a majority government.

Premier Jean Charest is annoyed that Legault, who gave up his seat in the national assembly two years ago, hasn’t even bothered to form a political party.

But is doing politics without a party that unusual in Quebec, where the New Democratic Party came from nowhere in the May 2 federal election to win 59 of the 75 seats in the province?

Legault’s strategy of playing politics without being in the legislature has surely given him a boost. In the assembly, the Opposition parties, following up on media reports about widespread corruption in Quebec’s construction sector, have been calling on Charest to launch a public inquiry for more than two years.

And Charest, aware that Paul Martin lost power in Ottawa after his Liberal Party was tarnished by the Gomery Commission inquiry, has said no.

The same polls also show overwhelming support for a public inquiry. Quebec voters seem disillusioned with Charest and disappointed at the powerlessness of the Opposition parties.

Legault, by presenting his own ideas rather than plunging into the ongoing debates, has made himself the Mr. Clean of Quebec politics. His Coalition pour l’avenir du Québec movement also has eclipsed Pauline Marois, whose divided Parti Québécois has been losing ground to Legault.

Legault, founding president of the charter airline Air Transat, along with Charles Sirois, CEO of Telesystem Ltd. and chairman of Canadian Imperial Bank of Com-merce, had established their coalition to propose change in Quebec politics. They have shelved the idea of holding a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty. Instead, they are focused on three areas: education, health care and the economy.

Education is their “absolute priority.” They call for eliminating Quebec’s school boards, evaluating teachers and raising the pay of the good teachers.

In health care, they note that Quebec does not have a shortage of doctors and suggest doctors engaged in other activities be encouraged to become family doctors.

They call for encouraging entrepreneurship, but also using the state levers of the economy, such at the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, to invest in companies and natural resources in the province.

Legault was a PQ member of the assembly for 11 years, serving in the key cabinet posts of treasury board, education and health. He is a natural politician, at ease with crowds and skilled at making complex ideas easy to understand. He claims the coalition wants an existing party to adopt its ideas, which seems unlikely, so by the end of 2011 Legault will formally create his own party. The challenge, once his virtual party becomes real, will be to maintain his popularity while showing he has a grasp of the issues.

Charest would dearly love to see Legault run in a byelection, putting him in a forum in which Charest can be devastating. But Legault’s clever, peekaboo politics is serving him well, so he will most likely stay out of the assembly until Charest calls an election in 2012 or 2013.  IE