As long as there is trade protectionism in Canada and the U.S., politicians will start every public appearance with a few words about what great friends we are, the world’s longest undefended border, etc. Then, away from public scrutiny, it will be business as usual.

The Americans will decide Canada warrants attention when they want something. Canadians will fume against U.S. trade protectionism while trying not to discuss our own, such as the supply-management system. In the end, the Americans will do something that will compel Canada to muse briefly about trading with someone else.

Pierre Trudeau began talking about a third option, in which Canada would develop trade with Europe, after Richard Nixon slapped a 90-day surcharge of 10% on all goods entering the U.S.

John Diefenbaker, always suspicious of the Americans, had announced at a conference of Com-monwealth prime ministers we would divert 15% of our U.S. exports to Britain lest we become too dependent on the U.S. economy.

During the years of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin, both Liberal governments  courted trade with the “BRIC” countries, particularly China, after continued exasperation with U.S. protectionism over softwood lumber.

Now, Stephen Harper is talking about sending Canada’s oil bounty across the Pacific to Asia because the Obama administration has put off approval of the Keystone pipeline. This comes just weeks after our now angry prime minister called Keystone’s approval a “no-brainer.”

Selling more oil to Asia will require construction of the Northern Gateway pipeline, and environmental approvals for that will be far from being a no-brainer.

Resources exports to Asia will continue to grow. But in the end, this Canadian government will do what its predecessors have had to do: put away the rhetoric and patiently deal with our fickle neighbour to the south as best it can.

As Gordon Ritchie wrote in his book on the free trade negotiations, Wrestling with the Elephant, dealing with the Americans means dealing with “thugs and bullies.”

The only Canadian government that has had any success in talking tough to the Americans was the Mulroney government, when it briefly pulled out of the free-trade negotiations to break through an intransigent wall on the other side.

In the meantime, the Americans’ action — or inaction — could have a profound effect on the Harper government’s agenda and the political landscape. Vowing — and, thereby, promising — to boost oil sales to Asia as retaliation to the Keystone delay will put Ottawa on a tricky path.

First, the Northern Gateway pipeline is facing ferocious opposition in the British Columbia interior by environmentalists, First Nations and residents. The project definitely is a long shot, which is probably why the Americans have shown no reaction.

Yet, Ottawa probably can’t back off now for fear of being seen by Canadians as a bunch of appeasers to an ungrateful U.S.

Amid all the talk about who will get Alberta’s oil, someone is bound to realize Eastern Canada gets its oil from Venezuela. Ottawa will be under increasing pressure to come up with a national energy plan.

We all know what the national energy program did for the Liberals in Western Canada in the 1980s. The federal government will be preoccupied with preventing a repeat of the NEP. Expect the provinces to step forward with demands for quid pro quo concessions.

Keystone was derailed by environmentalists because Canada has allowed itself to be cast as a petro state that cares little about climate change. Watch for Ottawa to reposition itself on climate change to make it easier for Washington to grant approval to Keystone in 2013.

Expanding trade with Asia to any substantial degree likely means Canada will have to join the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership. Existing members, such as Chile, have had to make concessions in agricultural subsidies; Canada will have a tough time protecting our supply-management system.

Ottawa already has enough farmers in Western Canada angry over legislation to end the Canadian Wheat Board. Having eastern dairy farmers angry over supply management as well will be very tricky. IE