The problem with being a twin is that you’re invariably compared with your sibling rather than judged on your own merits.

So it is with Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Born on the same date in 1905, these sister provinces developed at the same pace for the first 50 years. Their economies were largely agrarian, their politics populist and their populations were about one million.

Then something happened that radically changed their respective fortunes.
Some say it was the discovery of oil in Leduc, Alta., in 1947. Others say it was the election of the first democratic socialist government in North America — the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation — in Saskatchewan in 1944.

Whatever the cause, the two sisters have diverged dramatically in the past 50 years. Embracing the enterprising spirit of the thousands of Americans who moved north during the oil boom, Alberta grew strong and fast. Saskatchewan took a different course and experimented with state and co-operative ownership and brought in the first system of socialized medicine on the continent.

Today, Alberta’s population is three times that of Saskatchewan and its economy is six times larger. Many have used the occasion of the twin centennials to compare the two provinces — and Saskatchewan has been found wanting. Some say Saskatchewan could have matched Alberta’s growth if it hadn’t got ten stuck on socialist solutions, others say Saskatchewan could double its population in 20 years by harnessing its water resources and diversifying its agricultural sector.

But a recent study by the University of Saskatchewan suggests geology and geography are more important than ideology in determining the success or failure of provinces and states. Moreover, the study found that Saskatchewan and Alberta were fated by nature and demographic trends to be quite different provinces, despite their similar upbringings.

The study shows Saskatchewan and other provinces and states in the Great Plains region have suffered population declines or stagnation since the 1930s.

From Saskatchewan to western Texas, the Great Plains lost people during the 1990s — with the exception of the large urban centres of Winnipeg, Omaha, Des Moines and Wichita. By contrast, Alberta and those U.S. states bordering on the Rocky Mountains have seen solid population growth since the 1930s, especially during the 1990s.

The study says governments have very little, if any, impact on population trends. Large increases in population for regions such as Saskatchewan are not in the cards and should not form the basis of public policy.

The good news, according to the study, is that agriculture has gone through its most wrenching change and will have less impact on the provincial economy in future. More important, the study says, Saskatchewan can halt outmigration and achieve modest population growth by lowering taxes, educating Aboriginal youth, providing skills training to all its young people, reducing the burden of government and strengthening north/south trade and transportation links.

Saskatchewan residents also should stop comparing our province with Alberta. We may not have the resources wealth, the mountains and affluent lifestyles of our Alberta cousins, but we have a cost of living and quality of life that are second to none. IE