MOST POLITICAL PUNDITS ARE WRITing off any hope of British Columbia’s Liberal government capturing a fourth consecutive term in next May’s provincial election. These railbirds reason that Premier Christy Clark’s party remains so far down in the polls that victory in the vote eight months hence will never happen.

But such a stance also breaks the first rule of political pontificating – never say never – because in West Coast politics, eight months is an eternity. So, time may be on Premier Clark’s side. Already, the political dynamics here in B. C. show signs of shifting.

True, the latest Angus Reid poll has the B. C. Liberals back at 25%, compared with 46% for the NDP under leader Adrian Dix, 19% for the B. C. Conservatives led by former federal Tory MP John Cummins and 8% for the Green Party under Jane Sterk.

However, the mid-September poll also reflects changing voter sentiment. Support for the NDP has dropped by three points from the previous month, gained by three points for the Liberals while the Conservatives show no change. The Greens fell by one point.

“For the first time, the Liberals are not stagnant or dropping; they’re gaining,” says Angus Reid pollster Mario Conseco. “B. C. Conservatives are now stagnant … so the centre/right vote is starting to shift a little.”

Perhaps, as election day draws closer, some voters are beginning to think seriously about election issues.

But many voters still blame Clark’s B. C. Liberals for the sins of previous premier Gordon Campbell and the harmonized sales tax (HST) he introduced, with no warning, immediately after the 2009 election.

Even though the HST was subsequently killed by special referendum, many voters have yet to distinguish Christy Clark from her predecessor. And for this, unfairly or otherwise, she continues to pay heavily.

That’s why NDP leader Adrian Dix hasn’t put forward his party’s election platform. There’s been no need.

However, this window is closing. Soon, Dix will have to lay the NDP’s policy cards on the table, which is easier said than done.

It’s widely expected, and not denied by Dix, that an NDP government would restore the powers they had conferred on the province’s NDP-supporting union movement when the party last governed in the 1990s. Restoring many services that B. C. Liberal governments had cut to balance budgets is another strong possibility.

Connect the dots here, and the picture shows a return to much higher taxes. This may strengthen any voter shift toward the Liberals (a.k.a. the devil they know).

Enter the B. C. Conservatives. Or, is it exit? Until recently, they had drawn away enough support from the Liberals to hand the NDP its big lead in the polls. Now, for the Conservatives, cracks are beginning to appear. The party has money problems, Cummins’ leadership has been openly questioned and two of his key candidates for the next election recently resigned abruptly from the party.

But, to win, Clark must do more than simply hope for voters to wake up about the NDP or for the Conservatives to implode.

Most important, her party must display clear evidence – especially through next February’s budget – that the current B. C. Liberals are very different from those of the Campbell era.

© 2012 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.