The election of stephen har- per’s Conservative minority federal government could have a dramatic impact on Quebec politics.

Harper’s most significant impact could be saving Jean Charest’s federalist provincial government from what has, for the past two years, looked like certain defeat at the hands of the Parti Québécois, which is committed to a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty.

And if Harper does the three things he promised in a speech to the Quebec City Chamber of Commerce in mid-December, the PQ’s federal cousin, the Bloc Québécois, will need some new material.

The new prime minister’s first priority is a sweeping accountability law. The defeat of Paul Martin’s Liberals, as Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe said during his campaign, means the electorate has judged the Liberals on the sponsorship scandal — and wants its government to be held accountable.

The Conservatives are also committed to resolving the fiscal imbalance issue. Charest’s provincial Liberals and the Parti Québécois agree the tax system is structured so that Ottawa has ever-growing surpluses, whereas Quebec and other provinces have ever-growing needs, mainly to finance health and education.

Harper wants to sit down with all the provinces to work out a deal to send a greater share of the federal/provincial tax pie to Quebec and the other provinces.

And, in that same Chamber of Commerce speech, Harper said he would invite Quebec to speak for itself at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and at other international forums.

For Duceppe, the Jan. 23 election was about “Liberal scandals and envelopes full of dirty money.” He also campaigned on resolving the fiscal imbalance and international recognition for Quebec — all issues addressed by Harper as well.

Martin, like Jean Chrétien before him, refused to admit there was a fiscal imbalance. And his foreign affairs minister, Pierre Pettigrew, insisted Canada should speak “with one voice.”

Early in the new year, when polls showed a minority Tory government was a real possibility, Duceppe stopped attacking Martin and turned his fire on Harper. Until then, Harper was not even mentioned in Duceppe’s speeches. The “Liberal scandals” he used to denounce suddenly became “federal scandals,” tarring the Tories as well.

After the new government has taken office, the Bloc will probably say that Harper isn’t living up to his commitments; and Duceppe’s tag-team partner, PQ leader André Boisclair, will argue that Charest isn’t fighting hard enough for Quebec’s interests.

But it is possible that Harper and Charest (the latter once led the former federal Progressive Conservatives) can work out a package to present as proof federalism does work.

Charest can then prepare an election campaign for the spring or fall of 2007 on the theme that he and Harper are making federalism work for Quebec. And Charest can ask Quebecers if they really want another referendum.

But there is another factor in the equation that has nothing to do with Harper and a lot to do with Duceppe.

When Bernard Landry stepped down last June as PQ leader, Duceppe was the natural choice to succeed him. But Duceppe said no, explaining that he was committed to completing his term as the Bloc’s leader, a promise he renewed in this campaign.

Although Boisclair, the first openly gay leader of a political party in Canada, had to deal with issues related to his admission that he once used cocaine, that did not stop him from winning the PQ leadership.

However, as his campaign rival Pauline Marois pointed out in the PQ leadership race, Boisclair is short on ideas and short on details of what he plans to do. The PQ could do better under the leadership of Duceppe, who has grown in stature as a political leader.

But the PQ and the Bloc have made their beds. They assumed that Charest would be unable to turn things around and that a perpetual Liberal government in Ottawa would give Quebecers another reason to throw out Charest’s Quebec Liberals.

The PQ is now stuck with the untried Boisclair as its leader, and the federal election result has changed the party’s scenario. IE