Nova Scotia premier Darrell Dexter would have voters believe a new wave of prosperity is about to wash over the province. But he’s getting only muted support from economists.

As the new year dawned amid growing speculation about an election call, Dexter resolved to let Nova Scotians know, repeatedly, that there was smooth economic sailing ahead – thanks in part to the promise of almost 1,000 new jobs, courtesy of ProjEX, an engineering firm, and IBM, both of which announced in the same week that they would set up major new operations in Nova Scotia. The promised employment, which the premier called “one of the most significant weeks in job creation in the history of our province,” comes with an eight-year shelf life, however. The premier was less vocal on that point.

He also had little to say about the province’s employment stats for December: Nova Scotia lost 5,000 jobs, in stark contrast to the 40,000 additional jobs experienced across Canada. This rise marked the fourth increase within a five-month period for the country; Nova Scotia, conversely, has lost 8,600 jobs over 13 months.

But there does appear to be room for qualified optimism in Nova Scotia, with some forecasters predicting at least a small uptick in job growth. Even that would be welcome, given the grim experiences of the past few years, including the closing or scaling back of a clutch of pulp and paper mills.

Everyone, of course, is waiting to see what economic bounty will result from the $25-billion federal contract that Halifax-based Irving Shipbuilding Inc. won last year to construct navy combat vessels over the next 30 years. The Conference Board of Canada predicts that the province’s real GDP will jump by an average of $800 million a year as a result and that roughly 8,000 new jobs will be created – more than 1% of total employment in the province.

For now, however, the promise of prosperity made by the Irving contract remains unfulfilled. As a report from Bank of Montreal recently noted: “While clearly positive for the Nova Scotia economy, the massive project is not without challenges. Among these is the availability of skilled labour, some of which has already migrated to more lucrative labour markets in Western Canada.”

The differential between reality and the promised land is not dampening Dexter’s exuberance. He recently pointed to the shipbuilding contract, new commitments from Shell and BP to explore offshore, and a major hydro development involving Nova Scotia as signs of a brighter economic future. “I think people will realize that the investments that we made were all about the success of the future of the province, not the past,” Dexter told the ChronicleHerald recently.

The governing NDP is watching voter reaction closely. Expectations are that the NDP will call an election this year, although they can drag out the suspense until 2014. Holding off, however, may simply delay the inevitable. The party has been slipping in the polls; the Liberals, under leader Stephen McNeil, have repeatedly claimed top spot. According to the most recent poll, the Liberals have support from 41% of decided voters; the NDP have only 29%. Dexter’s party will be hoping for fair economic winds before facing the ballot box again.

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