The conservative federal government may have had plenty of turbulence in 2012. But Prime Minister Stephen Harper probably feels better about his government’s prospects today than he did a year ago.

There may be suspicions that won’t go away about dirty tricks in the 2011 election. Several cabinet members, such as Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Peter Penashue, seem to be geniuses for causing embarrassment. And there now is doubt about whether Ottawa will reach its target to get rid of the deficit by 2015.

Still, the Harper government is well positioned to win re-election in 2015 after its first year and a half of majority government.

The government has the New Democratic Party (NDP), the Liberals and the Green party to thank for the strong position it is now in. The Harperites may no longer control the media narrative as they did in their first five years in power, but until there is one party dominating the Opposition as the standard bearer of the anti-Harperites, the current government doesn’t have to worry.

The prime minister should be especially grateful to Justin Trudeau. The emergence of Trudeau the Younger as a Liberal leadership candidate appears to have done something the government couldn’t do on its own – stop the advance of NDP leader Thomas Mulcair in the public opinion polls.

With New Democrats and Liberals competing to be the main voice of dissent in Canada and the Greens pushing hard for a greater presence, the Tories aren’t likely to be very worried unless one of the Opposition parties collapses. So far, there’s no sign of that happening. Still, if Trudeau makes more major mistakes like his comments on Alberta, the NDP surge could resume.

There may be continued nervousness about the economy among voters, but the Tories still own the economy as a political issue. Their decision two years ago to make the economy the government’s priority – plus all those taxpayer-funded, “feel good” ads about Ottawa’s economic action plan – are paying big dividends.

The Tories’ handling of the economy as an issue is likely to be long remembered as a case study on how to turn uncertainty to advantage. The appointment of Mark Carney to the governorship of the Bank of England will serve as validation in the public’s mind that Canadian economic interests are in good hands, no matter what happens. Whether Canadians like Harper or not, they do regard him as the most competent leader.

Still, there are some issues the Tories need to monitor as we head into 2013:

– The “robocall” controversy may have started as an inconvenience for the Conservatives, just as the sponsorship scandal initially was for the Liberals. But news that the Tories were ordered by Elections Canada to stop calling voters about where to vote a day before the 2011 election will mean the robocall issue is not going to go away. Any link of this smoldering scandal to the Prime Minister’s Office could be a game-changer.

– In the first five years in power, Harper had seven strong ministers in his cabinet. Today, he has half that, and may be losing Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. Watch for a major cabinet shuffle and a bolstered agenda early in the year.

– Protests from aboriginal Canadians are not new – nor are court actions that wind up in First Nations groups’ favour. But this time, there are credible threats to use the courts to block major infrastructure projects, such as the Northern Gateway pipeline. Watch for federal initiatives to give aboriginal groups a slice of resources revenue.

– Although the Harper government may be in a strong position, some of its cousins, such as the Ontario Tories, are not. The Harperites will be concerned about brand fatigue before voters tire of them. We can expect federal government ministers to continue coming to a Tory riding near you to hand out cheques for everything from a hockey rink to a snowmobile track. Patronage works, which is why we have deficits.

– The Tories may become victims of their own success. If they look as invincible in 2015 as the Liberals did in 2000, there will be mounting pressure among Liberals and New Democrats to merge, just as there was for the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties circa 2003.

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