When Stephane Dion won
the Liberal leadership in De-cember, sovereigntists did “high-cinqs.”

Former Parti Quebecois premier Bernard Landry saw the choice of Dion bringing Quebec a step closer to independence. The pundits said Dion, whose federalism made him unpopular in his home province, could not revive Quebec as a Liberal stronghold.

But Dion may win seats in Quebec after all, adding to the Liberals’ total in Ontario and winnings in unlikely places such as Alberta and British Columbia.

On the convention floor, Liberal delegates from Western Canada told the same story: Dion blew into their province; he was gawky; and his English was awkward.

He laid out his three pillars: economic prosperity, social justice and environmental sustainability. The third is his strength. Even Elizabeth May, Green Party of Canada leader, is praising Dion, saying he’s light-years ahead of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper on sustainable development, the concept that the environmental, economic and social impact of business and government decisions can be co-ordinated for win/win/win results. It also appeals to Quebecers.

As environment minister in Paul Martin’s cabinet, Dion went to the oilpatch with his plan for tax incentives to transform Alberta’s oilsands into an environmentally, economically sound development. A Dion advisor said the oil executives were skeptical at first, but saw the plan made business sense. Dion claims environmental sustainability can generate “megatons of dollars.”

Before the Bloc Quebecois came out of nowhere to take 54 of Quebec’s 75 seats in the House of Commons in 1993, making Lucien Bouchard leader of Canada’s Opposition, a political scientist commented: “Quebecers either vote for the winner or they vote for Quebec.” The Universit» de Montr»al political scientist was St»phane Dion, aged 37.

In 1993, Quebec voters, like those in the rest of Canada, rejected Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives. They also rejected Jean Chretien’s Liberals, voting for Quebec in the person of Bouchard.

The Bloc remains a force in the province. It took 51 seats in the election last January and tied its 54-seat high in the 2004 vote, campaigning against the Liberal sponsorship scandal. Just before the Liberal convention, in a byelection won by the Bloc, the Liberal candidate placed fourth, taking a mere 6% of the vote. The Liberals were reduced to 13 seats in the 2006 election, barely ahead of the winning Conservatives, with 10 Quebec seats.

But Dion could turn that around. He is untainted by the sponsorship scandal, and Quebecers may be game for something else. The Bloc’s sovereignty goal is no closer than in 1993; and aside from sovereignty, Dion’s three pillars, his reservations about Afghanistan and opposition to the Tory law-and-order agenda are similar to the Bloc program.

Quebec’s Liberal establishment backed Michael Ignatieff for the leadership. Dion owes nothing to the backroom fixers, allowing him to rebuild the party in his own image.

Quebecers are disappointed with the Harper government. They back the Kyoto protocol and don’t buy Harper’s explanation that Kyoto targets for greenhouse-gas reduction cannot be met.

Ontario is now the Liberal stronghold but, if Dion can build a winning campaign from that base, he’ll come across at home as a winner and a Quebecer. He may take Quebec seats away from the Bloc and the Tories. IE