The Senate, the polls and Harper

For starters, if your firm is operating on the assumption of a 23-month window for federal advocacy before the next federal election, add some contingency assumptions for an 11-month, possibly even a six-month time frame.

The seven-year-old fixed election “law” is one of the Harper government’s most useful fictions. Legally, it is very easy for the government to call an early election. The Conservatives demonstrated this by calling the 2008 election two years early.

As the Liberals continue to gain strength in the polls — and as the Prime Minister’s Office continues to stumble from one mistake to another — Stephen Harper will be tempted to find an excuse for an early election in order to salvage a minority victory while his party still can.

It’s unlikely the Liberals and New Democrats would like each other enough to form a coalition government. A Tory minority government probably would be able to survive long enough to choose a new leader.

Like most political conventions, the Conservative policy meeting in Calgary this month was carefully stage-managed. So, it may be some time before the true mood of the delegates can be gauged.

But the Senate crisis may well deprive Harper of the victory lap he could have expected after reaching a trade agreement with Europe. There is a very good chance that the Calgary convention will be remembered as the beginning of the process to change leaders.

It has become a media cliché that Conservative backbenchers and ministers alike are terrified of Harper’s wrath. But the same could be said about the media themselves, when it comes to Harper’s personal character.

Sure, there has been lots of criticism, even scorn, heaped upon the Harper government and Conservative party in the media. But columnists and others have always been careful about what they write about Harper the man beyond what a master strategist or, more lately, tactical genius he is.

That has changed. Sun columnist John Robson, a right-winger, has written that Harper should either resign in disgrace or be fired. Plenty of other pundits now are questioning Harper’s ability to continue leading. The comparisons with Richard Nixon have started. In other words, Harper the man is now being depicted as a leading liability instead of the asset he used to be.

There hasn’t exactly been a lineup of Conservative icons like Preston Manning or Mike Harris coming to Harper’s defence. Jason Kenney, a potential leadership candidate, did, however, rush to the defence of Nigel Wright, the latest person to be thrown under the Harper bus.

This sudden change is bound to have Conservatives wondering if Harper should leave at the end of this year or wait until closer to the election, when the new leader can take advantage of a honeymoon with the voters — just as Justin Trudeau was able to do.

Something could still save Harper. Because Thomas Mulcair was a star performer in question period during the Senate scandal, the media exposure the NDP leader has been receiving could prompt enough of a rise for his party in the polls to split the anti-Harper vote. If the Liberals and New Democrats are neck and neck in the polls at the end of 2013, there could be a return to business as usual.

The Liberals could also be reaching the saturation point after a year of growth in public support. Or Liberal victories in three of the four byelections in late November could prompt a second surge in the polls. If that happens, the Conservatives could find themselves plummeting to third place in the polls.

The Liberals are known to be leading in the ridings of Toronto Centre, Bourassa and Brandon St. Souris. A byelection victory in the Tory stronghold of Provencher in Manitoba could mean the beginning of free fall for the Conservatives.

Regardless of whether Harper survives to fight another election, there is no doubt Canadians now see him differently.   IE