There are no certainties in Quebec’s new political triad era. Jean Charest’s Quebec Liberals, unpopular in their first term, nevertheless were re-elected. Even with a minority, Charest overcame the two Opposition parties to impose a $950-million tax cut.

Mario Dumont’s Action démocratique du Québec, Quebec’s official Opposition, is openly allied with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.

Harper is counting on ADQ voters to deliver him enough Quebec seats to form a majority government. Stéphane Dion’s gamble — that he can wean Quebecers off the Bloc Québécois — doesn’t seem to be working.

Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe’s foray into the Parti Québécois leadership race was about saving the PQ from losing its place to the ADQ. Without the PQ, the Bloc would have no reason to exist. But Duceppe backed off when he realized Pauline Marois had sewn up the PQ leadership.

The Péquistes, who chose the ill-fated André Boisclair as their leader over Marois in 2005, appeared happy to see the latter back. But the first poll after her comeback, while suggesting she could beat Charest and Dumont, gave her a modest 40% vote share.

When the PQ threatened to topple the Charest government over its tax cut, new polls indicated the PQ, even with Marois as leader, would still score less than 30% of the vote. But the Liberals and the ADQ are also stuck with about 30% of the vote.

Long-time PQ supporters may have been glad to see Marois back, but Dumont’s ADQ has the support of post-boomers. The younger generations don’t remember the time when bilingualism was a one-way street, when francophones who wanted to get ahead had to work in English. Secure in their identity, young Quebecers want to speak English.

And Dumont’s message that the two “old parties” — the Liberals and PQ — should make room for the younger generation explains why the ADQ, in those same polls, had a good shot at winning a July election. But the PQ pulled back on its threat to defeat the Charest budget.

Even with polls showing Dumont or the PQ winning, the Liberals weren’t far behind. The three parties may have emerged from a new election, each with a third of the seats.

After its 2003 defeat, the PQ realized the need to renew its message and chose the youthful Boisclair as its leader. But it made two fatal errors. First, the PQ pledged to set in motion a new referendum “as soon as possible” if elected in March. But Quebecers don’t want another referendum. A recent CROP poll indicated 64% of Quebecers would vote “No” in a new sovereignty referendum.

The second error was the PQ’s failure to renew itself. Three young PQ MNAs — Jonathan Valois, Stéphan Tremblay and Alexandre Bourdeau- — toured the province, and reported that young Quebecers did not want to hear about sovereignty. They were ignored. Valois and Tremblay did not run again. Bourdeau ran and was defeated — by an ADQ candidate.

Marois would be the most qualified person to become premier of Quebec to date. She has served as minister of finance, health, education, treasury board and has held other portfolios. But that strength could be her weakness if Quebecers want something new.

It would be wrong to rule out the Liberals. Recent changes won by Charest to the federal equalization program will make Quebecers rich. As Alberta develops its energy resources, Quebecers will share the wealth.

Dumont would pay off Quebec’s $122-billion debt, abolish school boards and renounce equalization payments.

Marois and Charest personify everything the ADQ opposes. But Quebec voters are wily. Next time, anybody could win. IE