Justin’s “no strategy” strategy

While New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Thomas Mulcair, the intensely serious and perpetually outraged leader of the Opposition, has been playing lead prosecutor in exposing the Conservatives’ shortcomings (real and imagined), Trudeau largely has been a non-combatant. That stance has allowed him to distance himself successfully from the bitter partisanship that has been turning off voters.

Aside from advocating the legalization of marijuana, we don’t really know where Trudeau stands on anything. And, strategically speaking, why should he tell us?

Harper has emerged as the Liberals’ best campaign asset because of his authoritarian governing style and recent heavy-handedness. Let’s face it, no opposition party could have inflicted the damage that Harper has done to himself recently.

No Opposition strategist could have masterminded the embarrassment of the aborted appointment of Justice Marc Nadon to the Supreme Court of Canada. Or the ham-fisted response to Egypt’s jailing of Canadian journalist Mohamed Fahmy. And if these incidents weren’t enough, there are the 31 charges against suspended Senator Mike Duffy. No matter what happens, the Duffy affair can’t be good for the Conservatives or for Harper.

So, what would happen to Trudeau if Harper’s own party decides their leader and his style of leadership have become too much of a liability and must go?

The Liberals’ strategy that has been so successful so far would have to go, too.

Should Harper decide to take a walk in the snow, as Trudeau the Elder did 30 years ago, the new political landscape might be just the break the NDP has been needing to cash in on the anti-Harper sentiment that so far has eluded them.

Think back to a year ago, when Harper shuffled his cabinet to start what was supposed to be the beginning of a Tory refresh. We were supposed to see a reinvigorated Harper lead his caucus out of a mid-term slump. That exercise was dead on arrival.

There has to be disappointment among the Tory ranks, and many will be wondering if it is time for a new leader.

Occasional rumours have come and gone. Yet, there have been few tangible signs that Harper is about to go. If anything, there are more signs that Harper will lead his party into the next election. This probably is why Jim Prentice decided to go after the leadership of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives rather than wait for Harper’s exit from the national stage.

Although Harper has been trailing in the polls since the day Trudeau became Liberal leader, it is important to remember that old-fashioned horse race-style polls aren’t as reliable as they used to be.

The black art of politics has evolved into a world of microtargeting and narrowcasting, in which you count on a solid base of support to influence enough swing voters to come out first in a multi-party system in which only half the voters cast a ballot.

These days, political parties poll on a riding-by-riding basis and don’t pay much attention to the horse-race polls you read about in the media.

In the previous federal election, in 2011, 50 ridings were decided on a margin of 7% or less – mostly in the Conservatives’ favour. These 50 thin-margin ridings are likely to decide the next election. All parties will be watching them on a daily basis.

The parties are also watching a dramatic shift to the political left in public opinion. The voter of 2014 is a very different creature than the voter of 2006. Frank Graves, the pollster who successfully called the Ontario election in June, says minimal government and lower taxes no longer resonate with today’s voter.

Still, as elections draw near, many voters traditionally become less likely to take a chance on change. That means the voter of 2015 could well remain a mystery.

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