All three major political parties outside Quebec worked frantically over the final weekend of an eight-week campaign in two provinces — Ontario and British Columbia.
There is good reason. In B.C. the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are about even in voter preference polls. For Ontario, some pollsters have concluded the Liberals managed to regain their lead over the Conservatives over this crucial weekend.
In an unusual ending to an unusual campaign, what goes on in Ontario and B.C. today will determine whether the Conservatives will claim a majority or minority, or at the very outside a razor thin minority government for the Liberals, who would lose the overall popular vote.
Voters in the rest of the country will really have a secondary role.
All other parties were running over the weekend against the Conservatives as the party to beat instead of the governing Liberals.
In another unusual development, pollsters were testing the limits of the Canada Elections Act.
Publication of polls is banned on Election Day. As a result, the polling industry in past elections published their final polls on the final Friday before voting day. This time polling continued into Sunday night for signs of the last-minute surge in 2004 that saw the Liberals snatch back a minority victory.
If the polling numbers show a final weekend surge for anybody, the pollsters will have to keep it to themselves today. Polling published online Sunday night was inconclusive although SES Research reported a four-point lead for the Liberals in Ontario.
So far, financial markets seem to be taking the prospect of a new government in stride, probably because the economic platforms of the Conservatives and Liberals are very much alike. In addition, the economy played a secondary role to social issues in the campaign.
However, if the Liberals meet their very worst-case scenario, the Bloc Quebecois could form the Official Opposition. That development could prompt a reaction in the markets on Tuesday.
Should the Conservatives wake up as the governing party tomorrow, they may not look forward to much of a honeymoon with the Fourth Estate.
Early in the campaign, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and the media seemed to suspend longstanding testiness. In fact, Harper for the most part enjoyed friendly coverage for most of the campaign.
But by the final Saturday, the old testiness was back. There was filmed coverage of a Quebec television reporter being physically jostled by Harper handler and the media was preoccupied with Conservative efforts to keep its grass roots away from microphones.
In last campaign weekend, Conservatives seen as party to beat
- By: Gord McIntosh
- January 23, 2006 January 23, 2006
- 11:15