Economic research house Global Insight Inc. says that the new Conservative government’s minority position isn’t likely to allow a strong government.

The firm notes that, “As a minority government they will always be vulnerable to a concerted push by the opposition.” It points out that in the next parliament they will have even fewer seats than the fragile Liberals did in the last (124 versus 135).

“To achieve the required majority to pass legislation the Conservatives will need at least another 31 votes from other parties. This means that unless they pick up Liberal support, they will need at least one vote from the Bloc Québécois even if the New Democrats and the independent all back them,” it says. “The Bloc is a more natural ally than the NDP in any case, but the Conservatives will be worried about dependence on the separatist party.”

“The situation is very complex and it is unclear as yet how far the smaller parties will be prepared to play ball,” it concludes. “All the players will acknowledge that Canadians do not want to be forced straight back to the polls, and this will presumably delay any attempt to topple the government.”

“Whatever transpires, however, the Conservatives will have much less policy freedom than they would have liked. This bodes ill for a coherent policy programme and strong government,” it says.