For some strange reason, Canadians have been content to elect an assorted medley of reprobates, curmudgeons and outright tyrants in provincial politics. But they don’t tolerate the same sort of rugged individualism in federal politics.

Just imagine what federal politics would be like with Ralph Klein, Mike Harris or Maurice Duplessi as prime minister. Or imagine what provincial politics would be like if someone such as Lester Pearson or Joe Clark was a premier. Maybe it’s the sheer size of the federal government. Or maybe it’s the size of the Parliamentary Press Gallery in Ottawa and the disproportionate media coverage of federal politics compared to coverage of provincial counterparts.

Whatever the reason, Canadians like their prime ministers to be non-confrontational consensus-builders. This is why Canadians can’t warm to Stephen Harper. Sure, neither Pierre Trudeau nor John Diefenbaker fit that mold. Nobody would mistake Brian Mulroney for a bland consensus-builder either.

But Trudeau had a wide range of intellectual and charismatic qualities that kept enough voters captivated throughout most of his many years in power. Diefenbaker’s hold on Canadian voters began to melt almost as soon as he won what was then the largest majority government on record in 1958. Canadians may have given Brian Mulroney back-to-back majorities as prime minister. But they never warmed to him because of a perceived ostentatious lifestyle and presidential manner.

In contrast, Jean Chrétien, once photographed choking a demonstrator, was the beneficiary of more than a decade of forgiveness by Canadians because of his “Little Guy from Shawinagan’’ shtick.

Harper seems determined to run the same sort of centralized government that Chrétien did. But he is trying to do it as Ralph Klein or Mike Harris would, which is likely why, after 30 months in power, Canadians just aren’t warming up to him — particularly female voters.

The leader of the official Opposition may be the butt of much ridicule and the Liberals only a shadow of the dynasty they once were, but the Tory vote just won’t grow.

If you look beyond the self-destruction of recently departed Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier, Harper has a cabinet full of strong and stable ministers, such as Jim Prentice, Jim Emerson, Peter Mackay, Chuck Strahl, Stockwell Day and others.

Yet after all this time in minority government, the Conservatives are virtually tied in the polls with the Liberals. Indeed, the Liberals may have a better chance of forming a minority government because, historically, the Tories have had a less efficient popular vote. That’s because most of the Tories’ core support is concentrated in rural areas as compared with traditional Liberal urban strength; this kind of distribution in the popular vote does not convert to seats in the Commons as it would with the Liberals.

That is why the Tories usually have needed a six-point lead over the Liberals to form a minority government. It is also why the Tories have not forced an election. When pollsters have asked Canadians, “Who is the more competent leader, Harper or Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion,” the preference has been consistently in Harper’s favour.

But even that advantage may be showing cracks. In the most recent Nanos poll on this question, three out of 10 respondents were undecided. (This poll was taken before the Bernier affair.)

Harper may not be the first prime minister to have difficulties with the media. But regardless of the difficulties, Trudeau, Chrétien and Mulroney had with the press gallery, the media were filled with the issues of the day and how the government was able to cope with them. This time, with the government appearing to run out of agenda items; media coverage is fixated on Harper’s loss of agenda control and the confrontational style of the veterans of the Mike Harris government who are now in Ottawa, particularly Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, Environment Minister John Baird and House Leader Peter Van Loan.

One has to wonder what would happen to party standings if the Tories could lose the Harris wrecking crew. The Harper government may be remembered as a lost opportunity. After all, here was a comparatively young prime minister who did not come from a dynasty of Quebec millionaires, a group that has virtually monopolized the job for 40 years.

His 2006 election could have been celebrated as the triumph of an ordinary Canadian with the same challenges faced by those who elected him. But this government immediately set off on a litany of confrontation, first with the media, then several provinces and some of his own fellow Conservatives, as well as senior civil servants.

@page_break@Meanwhile, Industry Minister Jim Prentice is giving more interviews and solidifying his franchise as the minister of everything. According to insiders, Prentice has put together an unofficial kitchen cabinet of top business executives, chaired by Derek Burney, the Tories’ resident Cardinal Richelieu. If Tory support can’t grow, Harper will be looking over his shoulder — if he isn’t already. IE