Here is a prediction: if Cana-dians ever do face a carbon tax nationally, it will be because of the actions of the governing Conservatives — not the Liberals, who are proposing one.

This is because the federal government, with environment minister John Baird mysteriously missing in action, has had little to say about alternatives to a carbon tax. Indeed, it really hasn’t much to say about climate change or the environment in general in recent months — so much so that Canadians might expect to see Baird’s picture on the side of their milk carton at breakfast tomorrow.

Sure, the Tories inserted in their February budget the notion of burying carbon output. But this represents an unproven solution and the government really hasn’t done much to flesh out this idea. Indeed, there is little sign that such a proposal is even being given serious consideration by either cabinet or the civil service.

A good argument can be made that a viable cap-and-trade system would provide a functional alternative to a carbon tax. But this government is opposed to carbon trading because it is reminiscent of Kyoto.

OK, so the government has said it would support a solely domestic carbon-trading system. But that would be like allowing trading of domestic securities only. So, the government’s support of carbon trading should be viewed much as Mackenzie King’s famous “conscription if necessary, but not necessarily conscription’’ position.

And, of course, the government has had nothing to say about the province of British Columbia introducing its own carbon tax. Perhaps the Tories have been too busy ridiculing Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion for advocating something that B.C. is already doing.

Just as Nature abhors a vacuum, the concept of a carbon tax is well on its way to acceptance by a weary Canadian public, simply because no alternative has been put in front of them.

The Conservatives’ ridicule of Dion’s carbon tax is highly reminiscent of Pierre Trudeau’s dismissal of the wage and price controls proposed by Robert Stanfield in the 1974 election, with Trudeau’s famous warning of “Zap, you’re frozen’’ if the Tories were to be elected. Of course, the Liberals rode voter opposition to wage and price controls to a majority government in that election. Then, 15 months later, the Liberals imposed wage and price controls.

Rest assured that if the carbon tax in B.C. proves to be politically and economically viable, the federal government, regardless of which party that is, will be looking at such a levy as an irresistible revenue grab, because this is what governments do. Remember how vehemently the Liberals opposed the GST in the 1993 election, and then quickly made this tax their own after the votes were counted?

Indeed, Dion’s proposal of a carbon tax might be a good thing because it could wake up Canadians — and their government — to some decisions that have to be made.

In fairness, the policy vacuum on climate change is not all the fault of the Harper government. Because this minority government has far outlasted the time minority governments are supposed to, discourse at the federal level has sunk to “gotcha politics,’’ as pollster Nik Nanos has noted. Theatre, gamesmanship and positioning have trumped the policy process, to the point at which very few new ideas are coming out of Ottawa these days.

It is very unlikely that a carbon tax will be implemented by Dion. He would need a majority to do that. And such a mandate doesn’t look very likely. However, a carbon tax introduced by Harper is far more likely.

Just as Parliament was rising for the summer in June, the Commons’ health committee tabled a report that concluded precious little has been accomplished since Ottawa and the provinces signed the much ballyhooed 2004 health accord.

This was the federal/provincial accord that was supposed to be a 10-year road map to solutions on everything from excessive wait times to the development of electronic health records. In the first parliamentary report card, members of Parliament from all parties gave the progress under the accord an “F.”

The MPs also complained that Health Canada refused to co-operate with their investigation, to the point of withholding information.

In 2005 or 2006, such a condemnation by all parties would have been big news. But in June 2008, the report went unnoticed, something that shows how far health care has fallen off the political radar screen. And, of course, it also demonstrates that perhaps the parliamentary press gallery has also succumbed to the same malaise of “gotcha politics’’ that the politicians have.

@page_break@The media, too, are so obsessed with positioning, political maneuvering and personalities in this extended minority government that issues they considered urgent just three years ago now escape their notice.

Here is another prediction: the period between the 2006 election and whenever this Parliament is put out of its misery will be remembered by historians as a particularly bleak era for Canadian government — when both politicians and the press gallery forgot for whom they were ultimately working. IE