Well, here it comes again. Parliament won’t be back until mid-September, but election fever is raging on the banks of the Rideau River.

The mouths of party leaders are full of trash talk about bringing on the election. Press gallery members without the good sense to be on a patio somewhere drinking late-summer beer are busy writing about the impending autumn election. And Canadians everywhere else have been trying to enjoy a politician-free summer as much as possible.

So, this is not a column about a looming autumn election.

At this point, the odds would seem to favour a federal election called for the autumn of 2009, as mandated in legislation introduced by the current government for regular votes every four years.

Yes, we have a minority government and minority governments are not supposed to last long. But it’s becoming clear that we have been witnessing Canada’s first de facto majority government. That’s because none of the parties in the House of Commons has managed to drum up the polling numbers — or the nerve — to back up their political bravado.

Election fever, of course, is understandable in the media. Election speculation is a story line that almost writes itself. Political journalists tend to take the narrative of least resistance. It’s human nature.

So, barring an accident — or more realistically, a confluence of events that spins out of everybody’s control — there likely won’t be an election this autumn. What will be interesting is how the political parties will be able to position themselves this autumn for when the election finally does come.

Going into the autumn, here is where the players sit:

> Liberals. Three federal byelections will be held Sept. 8. Normally, this would be an advantage to an Opposition party because voters like to give the government a prod in any byelection.

But two of the three ridings that are involved have been held by the Liberals. That means the Liberals will have to do well just to stand still. Of course, if the Liberals do exceedingly well, it would make sense to force an election while the party has critical mass. But realistically, how probable is that?

In the meantime, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has an advantage that others like Julius Ceasar didn’t have: he will know who has their daggers ready to insert between the leader’s shoulder blades. Beware the Ides of September.

Be sure many of the Liberals who are pushing an election are eager to get the leader’s obligatory one campaign out of the way so the leadership race can begin again in earnest. Does the Liberal leadership race ever end?

Dion has been compared many times to the skinny weakling left sitting on the beach who must endure sand being kicked into his face by the local bullies.

But resisting attempts to goad him into an election appear to have had a strategic benefit. The Conservatives, led by a man who has trouble keeping his mouth shut, may be their own worst enemies. Now that Ottawa is teetering on a return to a fiscal deficit, Harper is all the more vulnerable.

> Conservatives. After two and a half years of ridiculing the Liberals and their mild-mannered leader, the Conservatives are basically where they were in January 2006 when they gained their minority mandate.

The recent campaign to discredit Dion and his carbon tax doesn’t appear to have had much traction in gaining supporters. (Then again, the carbon tax has been a yawner with the public.)

Prime Minister Stephen Harper continues to be dogged by scandal and rumours. Regardless of what happens in the PM’s lawsuit with the Liberals, Harper has yet to offer the public a satisfactory explanation in the Chuck Cadman affair. And none of a slowing economy, a possible return to a fiscal deficit, continued troubles with AECL, an ugly fight with Elections Canada augur well for Harper’s future as PM.

One has to wonder what things would be like if Industry Minister Jim Prentice were the Tory leader. We might find out if Harper can’t make gains in the next election.

Still, now that the Prime Minister’s Office is under adult supervision, it’s becoming apparent that things could change. Guy Giorno, the new chief of staff, may be the Cardinal Richelieu figure every political leader needs to succeed.

@page_break@And what about the other parties? The nice thing about being an NDP member of Parliament is that you can enjoy the perks of office and the salary of a tenured professor without actually having to worry about the responsibilities of power.

As long as there are enough people willing to park their votes with the NDP because they haven’t forgiven the Liberals, this party can hang on to its usual 16% of the popular vote. Not bad for a party that hasn’t had a new policy since 1961.

It is a similar story for the Bloc Québécois. Although there is now little likelihood of separation, there are enough Quebecers who still cling to the illusion of sovereignty, or want Ottawa to continue to feel pressured into appeasing their province. IE