Although most stocks go down during bear markets, there are some that buck the trend. These stocks may not be immediate buys, but they should be tracked as potential buys.

The reason? They are the stocks most likely to rally against the trend; and they are also likely to become market leaders when the bear trend reverses.

At this stage of the market cycle, relative strength rather than fundamentals will point you to the areas of the market in which strength is likely to emerge.

With business slowing, earnings estimates and similar forecasts for next year are becoming unreliable, if not irrelevant. Market action does the sorting, revealing investors’ collective insight through varying levels of performance vs the broad market.

So, what are we seeing so far?

> In Canada, financial services stocks have performed better than the market, but not in the U.S.

> Consumer staples in both markets are strong.

> Telecommunication services are strong in Canada.

> Health-care services are strong in the U.S.

There are several ways to measure relative strength. In this survey, the primary tool is the closing price in September vs the average monthly closing price year-to-date. By this measure, the S&P/TSX composite index was 14% below its average, while the S&P 500 composite index was 11% below its average.

The big contrast between the financial services sectors of the two indices shows how different the outlook is for banks in Canada and in the U.S. The Canadian financial services subin-dex registered a drop of 4% from its average, while its U.S. counterpart was down by 15%.

Clearly, the market sees a small likelihood of major problems in the Canadian banking and financial services sector — and we all know about the disaster in the U.S. industry.

Investors have been swinging to consumer staples companies, viewing these stocks as sure-demand businesses in a slow economy. The U.S. consumer staples sector subindex finished September dead even with its average price, while the Canadian version was 3% below its average price.

In the U.S., consumer staple stocks include Procter & Gamble Co., PepsiCo Inc., H.J. Heinz Co., General Mills Inc., Hershey Co. and McCormick & Co. Inc. All gained in the quarter ended Sept. 30.

The short list of Canadian consumer staples companies in the S&P/TSX composite index include Shoppers Drug Mart Corp., Metro Inc., Saputo Inc. and George Weston Ltd. Like their U.S. counterparts, all gained in the quarter.

In Canada, telecom services stocks held up in the September bloodletting, while health-care stocks stood out in the U.S.

U.S.-based health-care winners in the quarter include Tenet Healthcare Corp., Amgen Inc., Coventry Health Care Inc., Baxter International Inc., Millipore Corp. and Quest Diagnostics Inc. Conversely, health-care stocks in Canada are weak, with the subindex at 16% below its average level.

Canada’s meagre assortment of telecom stocks produced four winners out of five in the subindex in the quarter. This made the sector one of Canada’s strongest. But in the U.S., the similar subindex has been one of the weakest, at 17% below its average price.

However, the two markets do share something in common, in that their weakest sector has been materials, with both versions at 22% below their average price. This reflects the drop in industrial metals and, in Canada especially, the September drop in gold.

The energy sector is also among the weakest in both markets as a result of the price drop in crude oil. The Canadian energy subindex fell to 16% below its average, while the U.S. subindex is down by 15%.

Meanwhile, the consumer durables sector offers a contrast to the consumer discretionary sector. In the U.S., durables is the third-strongest group, standing at 8% below its average. In Canada, that sector index is 11% below its average. Durables, including automobiles, restaurants, media, apparel and home improvement, all face, or are likely to face, hard times. IE