Office and the ethics ticket

But regardless of what happens, the winding down of this government has begun. Since the 2011 election, the public narrative on the Tories has gone from grudging respect to unabashed ridicule.

In the post-war period, once a government has been entrenched for any period of time, Canadians typically need two elections to throw it out. In 1957, the staid and tired Liberal government of Louis St. Laurent fell to the Conservatives. But it took another election a year later before Diefenbaker was firmly installed in power with a majority.

When it was Diefenbaker’s turn to fall into public disfavour, the Liberals under Lester Pearson couldn’t quite wrest power from the Conservatives at first, but did so the following year.

And, of course, most recently, Harper’s Conservatives needed the elections of 2004 and 2006, respectively, to take out the scandal-plagued Liberals.

This two-election rule seems to apply no matter how unpopular an incumbent government may be; the incumbents has so much home-court advantage, they usually can squeak out a minority finish. By the time a second election rolls around, anti-government sentiment has gained the momentum necessary to persuade enough swing voters to elect a different party.

In the meantime, some Harper Conservatives seem to be busy defeating themselves. For example, a committee of the Harper appointee-dominated Senate just recommended that all imams in the country be certified and registered by the federal government. Apparently, a long-gun registry is an intrusion on people’s privacy, but a Muslim registry isn’t.

Joe Oliver, something of a disappointment as finance minister, flat out denied Canada is or will be in recession, even though several respected economists say we are already in one. In the end, Oliver might turn out to be right. But any experienced politician knows enough to avoid unequivocal denial because that involves repeating the negative, which fosters continued discussion and speculation.

Statistics Canada will report on whether Canada is in a recession or not on Sept. 1. The agency’s finding could very well determine the election.

But the biggest liability the Harper government may have to worry about is that obnoxious, “stick it in your ear” style of governing. When a Truth and Reconciliation Commission that you appointed reports generations of First Nations children were victims of cultural genocide at residential schools and you say nothing, people are inclined to wonder if you’re running a racist government.

However, there are signs that Conservative attack ads finally are starting to work against Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, although going too far in this direction has its own dangers for the Tories. A major collapse of the Liberals’ support would be the Conservatives’ worst nightmare: Harper would have the dubious honour of being among the architects of the first NDP federal government in Canada’s history.

On this point: an NDP strong enough to split the anti-Harper vote is a big advantage to the incumbents, which is why Trudeau has been the Tories’ main target, while NDP leader Thomas Mulcair has been getting off easy. Watch for change here if the NDP continues to make gains.

Still, this isn’t the first time the NDP has led the polls in the summer only to watch the support slip in the autumn. Just ask Ed Broadbent about 1988.

Another truism in Canadian politics is that every government goes into office on the ethics ticket – and every government leaves office on the ethics ticket. The voters may be reaching saturation points with this government’s serial peccadillos – as Canadians have with past federal governments, Liberal or Conservative.

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