Now that we are all waiting for the Great Stimulus Budget of 2009 to kick in and pull us out of recession, let’s do some speculation on what Canada’s next government will look like.

The Liberals under Michael Ignatieff may have let the budget pass, thereby avoiding a winter election. And the coalition deal hatched by former Liberal leader Stephane Dion, NDP leader Jack Layton and Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe may be dead. But the government of Stephen Harper is probably on borrowed time .

Unless, of course, the Harper government can greatly recast itself. After a dismal performance in the Oct. 14 election and the early ejection of Dion in December, the Liberals are doing surprisingly well in the polls. In fact, by mid-January, the Liberals and the Tories were in a virtual tie.

In addition, Ignatieff has been steadily closing the gap in personal polling numbers between himself and Harper. If Harper isn’t missing Dion by now, he should be.

Ignatieff has been able to distance himself cleverly from the coalition — something hugely unpopular with the public — and back the budget without looking weak, like his predecessor. He also has deftly handled his first potential crisis by allowing the six Newfoundland and Labrador members of his caucus to vote against the budget in a special dispensation from party discipline.

The Liberal leader may indeed pay a price for relaxing party discipline, as some critics have suggested. But the special permission won praise from Harper’s most outspoken and popular opponent, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams — and that probably will be more helpful than harmful.

Ignatieff, however, was able to make the Newfoundland and Labrador budget protest history before it became a crisis. It is now clear that Ignatieff is emerging as a formidable foe. The Tories can no longer count on a weak Liberal leader.

Most telling, perhaps, is the public’s ho-hum reaction to the budget, despite all the advance build-up the Tories tried to give it through strategic leaks and air time with the prime minister. There was no bounce in the polls for the government. Indeed, the voters appeared indifferent to the budget in polls immediately after the budget.

These developments are not good news for a government that has sold itself as good managers and strategists. It should be remembered, however, that, traditionally, a government’s polling numbers go down after a budget. A notable exception was the former Liberal government of Jean Chrétien, whose numbers consistently rose after a budget. So, the public is probably taking a wait-and-see attitude this time.

Not taking a wait-and-see attitude are many members of the Parliamentary Press Gallery. The men and women who cover Parliament are often the first to sense a coming change in the political landscape and adjust their attentions.

Access to power is something that can make a political journalist’s career — and journalism has its share of careerists, just like any other profession. In addition, the media tend to be biased in favour of conflict and drama.

A few months ago, the press gallery was fixated on the troubles facing Dion and the Liberals and the insurmountable strengths of Harper and the Tories, because those were the freshest and most dramatic stories.

Today, the media’s perception is changing — and for good reason. They see Ignatieff gaining strength politically and Harper increasingly losing control of his agenda. In other words, Iggy’s got buzz, as they say in the communications business. Harper no longer does.

This reversal of media trends can be illustrated by recent editions of Maclean’s. In 2005 and 2006, Maclean’s writers, Paul Wells in particular, eagerly documented the rise of a united Conservative party and the strategic abilities of Harper.

Recently, the magazine pronounced conservatism dead in Canada and ran a glowing profile of Ignatieff. “The government of Canada stands for nothing,” complained Wells in the Feb. 16 edition of Maclean’s.

Globe and Mail columnist Lawrence Martin is on record predicting that Harper could quit his party leadership while he is ahead in the coming year. A prediction such as this can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Then, there is the poor economy — a formidable problem for any government but a gigantic one for a government that promised budget surpluses less than three months ago and then tabled a budget that forecasted five years of deficits. In addition, the prime minister and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty have publicly contradicted each other on key fiscal policy. (Flaherty says more stimulus is possible. Harper says no way.)

@page_break@The Liberals may be quietly glad they lost the 2008 election, just as losing the 1930 election turned out to be a blessing for the Grits. Conservative R.B. Bennett went on to become the most vilified prime minister in Canadian history, even though he didn’t deserve it.

It may not be a sure thing that the next government will be Liberal. With many Canadian voters looking for their own Barack Obama, the Conservatives could go with a more charismatic leader. If this minority government lasts 18 months to two years, that could be a possibility.

Although the Liberals’ leader may be doing well now, the party still needs to restructure and reinvent itself before the next election. Then, there is Harper himself. Few Canadian politicians have been able to reinvent themselves so many times. Don’t count him out yet IE