The tectonic plates of quebec politics are shifting in ways that could change Canada’s federal politics.

Premier Jean Charest likes to say his Liberals have no ties to any political party in Ottawa. But his pro-Quebec stance in the most recent federal election probably helped the Bloc Québécois hold onto its 49 seats in the province. That win is widely seen as the biggest factor in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s failure to attain his long-sought majority.

Now, Charest (a one-time Tory) appears to be moving closer to Michael Ignatieff, talking to the new federal Liberal leader regularly, and communicating with Harper only on a “needs basis,” as Charest puts it.

Ignatieff appears to be returning the warmth. The federal Liberal leader has decided to support Charest’s allegation that Harper “unilaterally” capped future equalization payments to Quebec, contrary to a 2007 agreement. Ignatieff has also reversed a long-standing Liberal policy on securities regulation, now siding with Quebec’s opposition to a single Canadian financial regulator.

Charest, if nothing else, is adept at shifting gears. When Harper led his Conservatives to power in 2006, he and Charest seemed to be on the same wavelength. Charest welcomed Harper’s idea of “open federalism.” One high-profile example of Harper’s willingness to grant more authority to Quebec was his decision to include a Quebec representative in Canada’s delegation to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. It may have been symbolic, but it helped make tangible one of Charest’s guiding principles: that Quebec can have an international personality and still be part of Canada.

Playing that nationalist card paid off for Charest in last December’s provincial election; his party picked up five Parti Québécois seats in overwhelmingly French-speaking ridings, enough to ensure a majority.

Charest has also been agile when it comes to turning federal largesse into support for his own leadership. When Ottawa was running huge budgetary surpluses, Quebec made a pitch for greater federal transfers by developing the concept of “fiscal imbalance.” Ottawa opened its wallet. In the 2007 federal budget, released a week before Quebec’s election, the federal Conservatives promised to correct the situation by making equalization more generous and sending Quebec $700 million in new money.

But much to the feds’ chagrin, Charest immediately announced that the $700 million would top off the $250-million tax cut he had promised going into the provincial election, pumping a total of $950 million into the Quebec economy. Outside the province, that federal budget, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s second, became known as “the Quebec budget.” The implication was that the province got more than its fair share.

That was the beginning of the chill between Harper and Charest. After trying to cosy up to Quebec nationalists, Harper appears to be turning his back on Quebec. The cooling is mutual. Harper was booed this year when he spoke at the opening of Quebec City’s winter carnival.

This latest shift in alliances also appears to be having an effect in Ontario. Flaherty’s January 2009 budget could be called the “Ontario budget.” It offers billions for that province’s auto industry and a commitment to cap equalization payments, thus easing the burden on Ontario taxpayers. Ontario (Liberal) Premier Dalton McGuinty, who had been sparring with Harper’s government, was clearly delighted, and happy as well with Harper’s decision to create a single Canadian securities commission, located in Toronto.

The “Ontario budget” also had the effect of weakening the common front against Ottawa that Charest and McGuinty had been building. Until then, Charest and McGuinty had been quite chummy, even holding their first joint Ontario/Quebec cabinet meeting last June. Charest had spoken of an Ontario/Quebec economic space, with labour mobility and the end of trade irritants between Canada’s two largest provinces.

But if Charest and McGuinty aren’t the buddies they once were, Charest is hardly out in the cold. He has a new friend in Ontario — the MP for Etobicoke Lakeshore. And according a recent poll, Ignatieff has an 11-point lead over Harper in Quebec. IE