WHILE ALBERTA’S CALAMITOUS FALL from the top of the economic ladder has hogged all the headlines, Saskatchewan’s economy has suffered a similar, albeit less spectacular reversal of fortune.

Just to recap: after posting little or no economic growth during the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, Saskatchewan sloughed off her ‘have not’ status in the 2000s and became Canada’s economic and job growth leader (along with Alberta) in a boom fuelled mainly by oil and potash.

Between 2004 and 2014, Saskatchewan led the provinces in economic growth, posting average gross domestic product (GDP) growth of slightly more than 1.5%, just ahead of Alberta.

During that time, Saskatchewan became a ‘have’ province, saw its population exceed 1.1 million for the first time and reversed decades of out-migration.

Yet, within the space of a year, Saskatchewan’s GDP growth has dropped from being ranked in the top two into the bottom two for 2015 and 2016 (both rankings along with Alberta).

Job growth in Saskatchewan, which averaged 1.8% from 2005 to 2015 (highest next to Alberta), slipped to 0.5% in 2015, the lowest rate of growth since 2005 and the lowest outside Atlantic Canada.

The number of unemployed in Saskatchewan increased to a record 30,400 in 2015, while the unemployment rate (although still low, at 5%) was the highest since 2010.

As with Alberta, the slumping oilpatch is the biggest contributor to Saskatchewan’s economic malaise. According the Ministry of the Economy, 1,831 oil wells were drilled in Saskatchewan last year, down from a record 3,657 in 2014 and the lowest number since 2009, when 1,610 oil wells were drilled.

If including natural gas drilling, the total rises to 1,832 (yes, that’s right, only one gas well was drilled in the province last year), the lowest total number of wells since 1998.

Potash prices have been stubbornly stuck below US$300 per tonne since the collapse of the Belarusian potash cartel in 2013, forcing Saskatchewan’s potash firms to cut production, idle mines and lay off workers.

Manufacturing, which is highly dependent on the agriculture and resources extraction industries, saw declines in sales and jobs near double-digits in 2015.

Construction activity has become a bust, while both resale housing prices and unit sales are dropping.

Ironically, the province’s old mainstay, farming, could be our ace in the hole. The sector is on a bit of a comeback after subpar crop years in 2014 and ’15, following a record crop in 2013. That bumper harvest, exacerbated by lack of grain handling and railway capacity, caused a massive backlog in the grain-transportation system, costing farmers billions in lost sales.

Those kinks have been ironed out, and grains and oilseeds farmers are hoping to harvest a normal-sized crop in 2016. Meanwhile, livestock producers are enjoying freer access to foreign markets and the highest prices in years.

After playing second-fiddle to the resources sector for decades, agriculture might be the economy’s star performer this year.

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