Never let it be said that premier Christy Clark’s British Columbia Liberal government falls short in its planning. But we’re not referring to planning for peace, order and good government. We’re referring to planning for re-election, which appears to be a significant driving force behind B.C.’s recently released 2016 budget.
That process will begin slowly, with gradual loosening of the purse strings following several years of belt-tightening. And, with this approach, the Clark government has signalled its gradual transition into election mode in preparation for May 9, 2017.
This budget also marks the beginning of Clark’s fifth year in office – and the 15th consecutive year of Liberal rule in B.C. As the B.C. Liberals prepare, they carry two sharply pointed arrows in their election campaign’s quiver: a fourth consecutive balanced budget in 2016 and the best- performing provincial economy in Canada.
Budget 2016 projects surpluses of $264 million in 2016-17, $287 million in 2017-18 and $373 million in 2018-19. Granted, these are small numbers, considering that annual revenue in each of the three fiscal planning years are $48.1 billion, $49.0 billion and $50.1 billion, respectively. But these forecasts do give Victoria wiggle room on the road to the next election.
A relatively healthy provincial economy is simply icing on the cake. “We are forecast to lead Canadian provinces in economic growth this year and are continuing to make fiscal decisions that further strengthen our economy, create jobs and make life more affordable for British Columbians,” said B.C. Finance Minister Michael de Jong in his mid-February budget speech.
The government forecast calls for annual growth of 2.4%, 2.3% and 2.3% in the three-year fiscal planning period – numbers similar to private-sector forecasts.
However, despite the surpluses, total taxpayer-supported debt will climb to $45.1 billion in 2018-19 from $43.2 billion in 2016-17 due to significant infrastructure investing. But this debt level still reflects a declining and still manageable taxpayer-supported debt/GDP ratio of 16.3% by 2018-19.
A key change in the budget was help for financially stressed homebuyers, particularly in the ultrahigh-priced Metro Vancouver market, where prices for single-family homes have increased by 45%-70% over the past five years and now average $1.1 million.
Budget changes to the province’s property transfer tax, which earned Victoria $1.15 billion during the past fiscal year, removes the levy on new houses valued up to $750,000. This will increase lower-cost supply, such as condominiums in the Lower Mainland. The lost revenue is being recaptured by increasing this tax to 3% from 2% on homes valued over $2 million.
The budget also exempts all children from fees charged by the B.C. Medical Services Plan and reduces these fees for some other groups.
The government also launched the long-promised Prosperity Fund with a $100-million deposit, but wisely removed the fund’s link to proposed liquefied natural gas export projects, the commencement of which is becoming increasingly doubtful due to low oil prices.
Finally, a budget announcement outlined a B.C. tax competitiveness review, which includes the provincial sales tax. The review’s report is due this autumn, which means any tax changes can be included in next February’s budget – and just in time for next spring’s election.
© 2016 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.
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