According to recent public opinion polling trends, the hemorrhaging of public support for the Tories because of the proroguing fiasco appears to have ended. In fact, some polls show a tiny uptick for the Tories.

Despite the Tories’ collapse in the polls in December and January, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has continued to hold a healthy lead over the other parties’ leaders when decided voters are asked who is best suited to lead the country.

It is truly ironic that Harper continues to be doing better than his party in the polls when most people think it was his miscalculation in proroguing Parliament that led to the Tories’ sudden slide.

The Tories have branded the March 4 budget as a “blueprint for recovery” — an economic recovery, that is. It goes without saying that they hope it is also a blueprint for the beginning of political recovery.

However, how robust a recovery remains to be seen — on both counts.

As of this writing, it also remains to be seen whether the governing party gets any kind of a bump in the polls because of the Olympics. As pollster Nik Nanos has noted, a lot will depend on whether the gleam of Canada’s gold medal win in hockey rubs off on the Tories.

One thing is clear, though. While the Olympics have taken attention away from the government’s proroguing problems, the closure of Parliament has also taken away the opportunity of pre-selling the budget.

And how the public will greet the budget is yet another question. When Harper prorogued Parliament on Dec. 30, preparation for this great blueprint was given as a prime reason. Will the budget live up to that hype?

Since it has already been billed as a recovery budget, it seems highly unlikely there will be extensive spending cuts. And because the government continues to promise not to raise taxes or cut transfer payments, there isn’t likely to be much immediate progress in taming the $56-billion deficit. At least, this will not be a hardship budget for most middle-class voters.

So, expect some political theatre. The Tories have publicly trained their sights on civil-service pensions, a move bound to win applause from the party’s core voters and many others who feel shortchanged by the growing imbalance between private- and public-sector pensions.

In fact, civil-service pensions represent exactly the kind of “wedge issue” the Tories seem to love.

But the price for using a wedge issue to gain support from one type of voter has a major downside for the government. It also means hardening the anti-government resolve of those who don’t fare so well as a result of government policies.

Regardless of what the government has in mind for civil servants’ pensions, there won’t be much immediate impact on the national balance sheet because of inevitable legal challenges and legislative maneuverings.

The Tories also face something that past governments haven’t. That something is this annoying Parliamentary Budget Officer of their own creation, who keeps contradicting just about everything the finance minister says.

The latest criticism from Kevin Page warned, on the eve of the budget, that Canada’s aging demographics threaten the public treasury with an unsustainable health-care system and flagging productivity in the private sector.

Add that to the continued second guessing of the government’s promise to address the deficit without tax increases or lower transfer payments to the provinces, and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty faces the real prospect of tabling a budget that underwhelms almost everyone.

As a result, there is a possibility that the Tories will borrow once again from the Keynesian playbook and include some sort of employment strategy. The Liberals have probably sensed this; Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff staked out a position late last year on employment when he called for job-creation measures for the young.

As the Liberals are in no position to fight an election, the budget will pass. Whether it passes in the court of public opinion is another question.

Meantime, something is happening inside the many bars and restaurants around Parliament Hill. Conservatives, of all people, have quietly started to debate the future of Harper.

The polls may not show any strong sign of Harper losing his grip on the party leadership. But it shouldn’t be surprising that some observers would wonder about Harper’s future at the helm, given that the party has slipped from the cusp of majority support in October.

@page_break@Party insiders from the old Progressive Conservative wing have been quietly grumbling to themselves for months. But now the volume has risen a notch when it comes to public dislike of Harper, overshadowing the government’s accomplishments.

Conversely, the Harperites seem to be conducting a whispering campaign against Guy Giorno, the PM’s chief of staff, claiming that prorogation was his idea.

As usual, there appear to be internal problems in the Tory camp that even a sellable budget won’t correct. IE