The Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold, despite calls for further cuts, predicts BMO Nesbitt Burns in its July bond strategy report.

Nesbitt notes that both the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance have recognized that the second quarter will be very weak, with the softness spilling over into the third quarter.

Nesbitt says that following the latest round of rate cuts in the U.S., the booming loonie, and the outbreaks of SARS and mad cow disease, discussion has shifted from the possibility of further rate increases to the potential size of rate cuts by the end of the year.

Nesbitt says that the bond market is looking for a modest cut of 25 basis points, with a small chance of 50. “For the first time in over a year and a half, the market is expecting the BoC to cut rates and the Fed to stay on hold,” it says.

However, the firm predicts that the Bank of Canada will likely hold the line on Canadian interest rates on July 15, waiting for clearer signs on the Canadian economy’s health.

In keeping with its prediction, Nesbitt recommends shifting weight from mid-term to shorter-dated bonds. It also counsels that “Corporate spreads are already tight, and there is little room for compression, offering sparse incentive to heavily overweight the corporate sector.”

On the provincial side, Nesbitt says that most provinces are well funded, with Ontario and Manitoba both recently having very successful Savings Bond programs. “Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have not been in the market in fiscal 2003, and a possible election could keep Nova Scotia sidelined,” it says.

Nesbitt observes that the corporate bond market remained very receptive to new deals in June. “Each new deal last month was over-subscribed and benefited from a tightening in corporate spreads,” it says.