The two major federal political parties remain near deadlock. The rejection of Australia-based BHP Billiton Ltd.’s takeover of Saskatoon-based Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan may have torn a hole in the ruling Tories’ policy book. And the government seems to limp from one controversy to another.

But, with the Liberals still unable to convert voter satisfaction into political capital, the government appears to be resolved to salvage as many seats as it can in a spring election that is likely to lead to yet another minority government.

The early signs of a pending election have been cropping up since Parliament resumed sitting in September. The Tories continue to paper the country’s regions with largesse. Perhaps most telling of government priorities was the recent whereabouts of Defence Minister Peter MacKay. During the week the government announced it was extending Canada’s mission in Afghanistan, MacKay was in Nova Scotia at a photo op handing out a cheque.

In the months leading up to an election, high-level resignations are common as veteran members of Parliament and political staff decide to leave. A steady exodus of senior government staffers were moving into the private sector this past autumn.

There also was the very high-profile resignation of Environment Minister Jim Prentice for a high-paying job on Bay Street. In addition, there is speculation about the future of two ministers — Heritage Minister James Moore and MacKay. Moore is under pressure to seek the leadership of the B.C. Liberal party. As for MacKay, there is an abundance of indications that his future in Stephen Harper’s cabinet may be in doubt.

MacKay has been very coy when questioned about discussions with law firm Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP. But, most important, it appears he is being pushed out: to assign the announcement of the extension of a major military mission to Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon instead of the defence minister marks a spectacular fall from grace for MacKay.

MacKay retaliated by breaking ranks on the government’s decision to deny extended landing rights in Canada to the United Arab Emirates. He even wore a baseball cap that said, “Fly Emirates” — a gesture that normally would not be a wise career move for someone aiming to stay in a government cabinet. For good measure, MacKay proclaimed publicly that relations with the UAE have been set back by a decade by Ottawa’s intransigence on landing rights.

MacKay’s days in cabinet appear to be numbered, and the government may want to head to the polls as soon it as can before there are any more cracks in its solidarity. An autumn election is unlikely because Harper will want to freshen up his cabinet and bring down a pre-election budget as early as he can in January.

Other signs include a new crop of television ads about the Tories’ favourite theme of law and order and the fact the Tories are doing what they can to keep complicated issues such as the deficit and the high unemployment rate out of the public eye.

However, as with all strategic plans, there have been unforeseen developments. A breach in solidarity is about the last thing a government needs.

Then there is the Potash Corp. issue. The Harper government may have shored up its 13 seats in Saskatchewan with its decision to block BHP Billiton’s takeover plans, but there will be collateral damage.

This decision isn’t sitting well with the purists among Conservative supporters. Even those who support the decision may be uneasy with setting aside Tory principles to appease Saskatchewan.

Pollster Nik Nanos has concluded that the Tory tactic of scaring people with the prospect of a Liberal/NDP/Bloc Québécois coalition doesn’t appear to be working; if true, the Tories may hold off until they come up with a replacement tactic.

In the 2008 election, the Tories successfully used a strategy that worked like this: if you can’t win someone’s vote, then discourage them from voting for your opponent through attack ads and other demonizing tactics. As a result, the Tories were able to increase their seats in the Commons because 800,000 Liberal voters stayed home.

Could the same thing happen to the Tories? That’s a question they will be pondering before they pull the plug. IE