With fiscal tensions easing and the U.S. recovery gaining momentum, Fitch Ratings has affirmed its sovereign rating on the United States at AAA with a stable outlook.
The rating agency says that the action resolves the ratings back in October 2013, amid an ongoing fiscal crisis. Fitch reports that the debt ceiling crises that occurred in August 2011 and October 2013 “do not appear to have negatively affected U.S. bond yields or reduced foreign holdings of Treasury securities. Rating Watch Negative, which was placed on its U.STherefore Fitch does not believe the role of the U.S. dollar, sovereign financing flexibility or debt tolerance has been materially damaged.”
It also notes that strong fiscal consolidation has been achieved in recent months, with the federal budget deficit in decline due to both policy measures and economic recovery. And, Fitch expects that the deficit will continue to decline in fiscal 2014 and 2015.
Additionally, Fitch says that there has been “some improvement in the coherence of economic policymaking”, including the suspension of the federal debt ceiling until March 2015. “Nevertheless, we do not expect a ‘grand bargain’ on deficit and debt reduction this side of the 2016 presidential elections,” it says.
Fitch forecasts that gross general government debt in the U.S. will peak at 100% of GDP in 2014 before declining slightly for four years. “This is below the threshold of 110% that we previously identified as incompatible with a ‘AAA’ rating for the U.S.,” it says.
“The U.S. has greater debt tolerance than ‘AAA’ peers owing to the unparalleled financing flexibility provided by being the issuer of the world’s pre-eminent reserve currency and benchmark fixed income asset,” it adds.
Finally, Fitch observes that U.S. growth prospects are more robust, and the demographic trends less worrisome, than for many advanced countries. It forecasts GDP growth to accelerate from 1.9% in 2013 to 2.8% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015. It also says that the banking system is well capitalized with a total risk-based capital ratio of 15%.