BMO Nesbitt Burns says that although the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates again, it doesn’t predict any cuts happening at the October 15 meeting.

In its October bond strategy report, Nesbitt says that the possibility of a rate cut remains, “due to concerns over the impact of the strong Canadian dollar, the longevity of the U.S. rebound, and the recent decline in Canadian employment.”

It suggests that the central bank has room to cut because there is little price pressure in the pipeline. “As well, core CPI inflation is now well below the 2% target rate, where it will soon be joined by overall inflation.”

“Interest rates are expected to rise over the medium term. However, the near-term uncertainty over the direction of the economy suggests moving portfolios to benchmark weights,” Nesbitt says. “This implies trimming exposure in the middle part of the curve, which has performed quite well recently. A move to trim duration should be made as evidence accumulates that a sustainable economic rebound is in place.”

Nesbitt also predicts that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will hold interest rates steady at its October 28 meeting. “The U.S. economy likely expanded by more than 5% in Q3, but the momentum appears to be moderating heading into the fourth quarter. Even though business activity is advancing, questions linger about the sustainability of the upturn,” it says.

“A particular concern is that consumer spending could falter given the persistent employment declines, reflecting U.S. firms’ ongoing efforts to rebuild profit margins. The recent erosion of consumer confidence clearly reflects job market concerns. The Fed has done all it can to try to convince investors that interest rates will stay low for an extended period.”

As for bonds, Nesbitt also says that it expects that provincial issuers will continue to find the underlying market conditions attractive, given the recent rally in the Canadian bond market.

In notes that corporate new issuance was strong in September, totaling $3.6 billion. This doubled the $1.8 billion issued during September 2002, and was markedly higher than the $2.5 billion raised in August. “The trend that began early in the summer of highly rated financial issuance dominating the new activity front continued. Banks and financial paper accounted for $2.4 billion, or nearly 66% of the new issues during the month,” it reports.